The Official End Of 2009 Predictions

[Oyvoyvoyv]

Wii: 73.5M

Explanation:

Will be at 45-46M by end of 08. Yearly, 28.8M is produced. As there may not be a complete sell-through, and some units will be returned, the number is slightly lower than what the average would be by taking 45-46 + 28.8 (would be 74.3M)

 

X360: 39M

 

Explanation:

As it looks, X360 will end at ~ 27.5M. That is ~ 12M for 2008. 10.5M then seems logical for the 4th year, as the 3rd tends to be the largest.

 

Ps3: 34.5M

Explanation:

Looks like it will sell ~ 11M (perhaps a tad more) for 2008, ending at ~ 20M (perhaps a tad lower) . As we can expect to see a slight growth from 2nd to 3rd year, I expect the sales to increase by ~ 33% from year 2 to 3 (the 360 did 50% + for year 2-3), and the Ps3 to sell ~ 14.5M.

All in all, Ps3's major increases over 2008, are going to be about the same as the 360 had for year 2 to 3. Some may think this number is high, but I think that this is the most logical.

 

Now, these are a bit tougher.

 

PsP: 56.5M

Explanation:

Ps3 looks like is going to end at ~ 45M for the end of the year. That is ~ 15M of sales. I believe it will see a bit off a dip next year, espescially as Japan should drop off again. 12M seems possible, and is a 20% drop from year 4-5. Could be a bit lower, 11-12M really.

 

DS: 125M

Explanation:

This was the toughest really. It looks like it is going to be at 95M for the end of the year, having sold ~ 32M for 2008. DS is now entering its 5th year, but as it has only been increasing, and DSi is comming out to spike up Japan, I simply don't see the money printer dropping. Still, it may not sell fully as much. 30-35M seems most logical to me, but I'm going with 30M for some odd reason.

 

Ps2: 130M

Explanation:

~ 124.5M by the end of the year seems probable. That is with ~ 8M sales in 2008. Should die off pretty fast now, and I see it selling "only" 5M in 2009.

 

 

Edit: Looks like I am slightly undershooting the DS for 2008. Seems like ~ 96-97M is much more likely. This also means it sold more in 08.

I change my prediction.

 

On the last week in 2009 (ending in January), the DS will pass the Ps2.