2012 at the EARLIEST!  Recent comments about things such as the NXE lead me to believe that even more so (how they can radically change things by software download instead of releasing new product.

The BIGGEST reasons, though, are price, profitability and install base.  While the Arcade is at somewhat of a mass market price, until the Pro comes down to $199 or lower, then the sales potential of the console won't peak.  Why introduce another high cost system when your main console is STILL well over $199???  And MS still needs much more profitability out of its entertainment sector to make up for the many losses incurred from the first Xbox.  Lastly, the install base for all 3 consoles is still FAR smaller than it was last gen when the 360 was introduced.  This gen still has plenty of room to grow.

That's Darth Tigris' take.  Enjoy.

It should be about time MS understands what Sony told them when PS2 ruled and XFlop 1, well, flopped: a console needed a lifecycle at least 5 years long then, now, with development costs skyrocketed, even more.
This doesn't mean that the new console must be launched 6 or more years after the previous, the old console, if good, can still keep on selling as lower end model when the new one is already for sale, just like PS2 is still doing (but honestly, XFlop 1 couldn't do the same also because MS signed very unfavourable supply contracts making its production prohibitive, but declaring from the start a short lifespan MS helped killing it)

A 6 year life cycle would mean a 2011 launch. That gives the 360 a healthy 3 more years to build install base up to a point that support will continue for another 4 years after that via third parties, just like the PS2. Nintendo could be the one to trigger the next wave, because a Wii HD is very likely in 2010.

As for Sony, they are screwed. A 6 year life cycle would put them 2012 launch, but they have lost so much money this generation that they might have to push it back further. They can't have another unsuccessful launch or it will kill them.

It's really hard to know what else can be offered in the gaming space. With the upgrading of services via web updates it's going to be much harder to release a new console that feels completely different and fresh. Nintendo's success with the casuals also worries me. I hate the Wii control scheme and hope it doesn't cross over to MS and Sony consoles. At least not as the primary control scheme.

will the graphics of next gen blow away this gen's graphics (i don't pc game maybe it's already being blown away)? if not, then does sony really have to release a new console because MS does? why can't sony work on a 10 yr plan for the ps3 or at least release the ps4 in 8 years? why can't MS do the same thing?

i'm sure both companies are working on something, but i'm also certain that they are looking a lot closer at what they are including out of the box because noone wants to replay the ps3 launch.

also, i agree that game development costs have increase so much that longer life spans would be appreciated from the developer's point of view (regain initial development costs).

New XBox to be released late 2010, marking 5th year anniversary of the XBox 360 launch. The XBox 360 should sell up until late 2012. So it will sell for 7 years in total.

ive said this many times if any of them release before 2012 there will be backlash that would most likely lead to a crash this will not only come from the general buying public, but devs, whos asset libraries will be devalued. it would not be good for the industry right now.

we are in actually a pretty good place for all three with software sales being what they are sometime next year all three should put up proffits and continue to do so till the end of the generation. sony will be the last to post profits form its game division, and depending on how many units they move form now until the cut (march earliest), software could even offset a small loss per console basis.

other things that work against the launch are the "recession" that we are told we are in. the much more real slide of the euro and most world monies against the yen (the dollar has held steady but was already weak against it).

on top of that there currently on going major revisions in board and ram design the like of which havent been seen since the mid 90s, this shift should be more defined by 2012 with techs less risky. it also gives time for ISPs to be upgraded and allow for smoother download of full games which is something devs want to kill the resale market (though rental of the game from a download is most likely a devs wet dream rentals on music and games make fortunes)

honestly the only one that could benifit from ending early is nintendo, since they have traditionaly made a profit out of the gate, making people upgrade would just be more cash for them, but killing a cash cow (the wii) is always dangerous

They only had 2 models when they released 360 in fall 2005.  The Elite didn't come out until spring 2007.

nah they'll come out nov 2011 in my opinion cuz they are doing better than ever coming out first and if they keep this trend up they will soon get a huge margin off of sony.

A 360's life is only dependent on it's build quality and environmental situations. Selling it cheaper won't make it last longer.

This trick came out well, but not too much: Wii managed to beat XB360 in less than one year although it was launched one year later, only PS3 suffered because it was and still is far more expensive (but in the period PS3 had already a decent SW offer and a price not much higher, considering it was standard equipped with HDD and BD too, not only PS3 wasn't suffering, but it beat XB360 in weekly sales for 9 months).

With Sony most certainly not repeating past errors, the same trick against it won't work at all.

And like many others wrote, SW developers would really hate a short lifecycle.