A 6 year life cycle would mean a 2011 launch. That gives the 360 a healthy 3 more years to build install base up to a point that support will continue for another 4 years after that via third parties, just like the PS2. Nintendo could be the one to trigger the next wave, because a Wii HD is very likely in 2010.
As for Sony, they are screwed. A 6 year life cycle would put them 2012 launch, but they have lost so much money this generation that they might have to push it back further. They can't have another unsuccessful launch or it will kill them.
It's really hard to know what else can be offered in the gaming space. With the upgrading of services via web updates it's going to be much harder to release a new console that feels completely different and fresh. Nintendo's success with the casuals also worries me. I hate the Wii control scheme and hope it doesn't cross over to MS and Sony consoles. At least not as the primary control scheme.
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