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2012 at the EARLIEST!  Recent comments about things such as the NXE lead me to believe that even more so (how they can radically change things by software download instead of releasing new product.

The BIGGEST reasons, though, are price, profitability and install base.  While the Arcade is at somewhat of a mass market price, until the Pro comes down to $199 or lower, then the sales potential of the console won't peak.  Why introduce another high cost system when your main console is STILL well over $199???  And MS still needs much more profitability out of its entertainment sector to make up for the many losses incurred from the first Xbox.  Lastly, the install base for all 3 consoles is still FAR smaller than it was last gen when the 360 was introduced.  This gen still has plenty of room to grow.

That's Darth Tigris' take.  Enjoy.