I'm still wondering what this has to do with the topic, and I've read it three times now...

A.) The games are releasing in 2009, most near the end of 2009 so therefore we'd have to talk about the userbase in that year not what its currently at.

B.) Unlikely, From all reports and my personal experience Killzone 2 is a top tier shooter in the same rank as Gears of War, Call of Duty, Halo so it'll sell well. It'll probably best COD WAW PS3 sales but not the combined sales of all different consoles.

C.) Uncharted actually sold rather than was excessively bundled.

D.) Mag sales don't really matter, I was being extremely conservative. 15 million between six games when one includes GT5 is always going to be a conservative number.

G.) Same deal as MAG, the real games are Uncharted, GOW III and GT5. GT is arguably an even bigger series than Halo and therefore the sales should be a large proportion of that 15 million I estimated. Gears sold 5 million on a tiny userbase, and Halo sold 8 million and started on a smaller userbase.

My PSN list is empty, you could fill it up? ^^

Who said anything about 2009 being the year of anything?

All he said was that the ps3 needs a price cut, and questioned whether or not SCE could afford one.

Take your trolling elsewhere.

Good point.

I have one quite big question  though, that has been asked incredibly many times.

Do publishers really get 38 dollars?

If the game costs 59 dollars (which I am assuming will be the average price for the games sold, rather than the launch price 69 dollars), that means that there are about 8 dollars tax in most countries (14%), lower in some, higher in some.

I can therefore not see the publisher really getting more than 30 dollars pr game.

Okay, and a 2nd question.

You are talking solely by total sales.

What you should really be looking at, is the increase in sales due to those next millions. Will those sell 15M more because of them? Maybe, but it is no longer conservative, rather the realistic or slightly optimistic.

Edit:

To add a bit to my point.

I see GT5 selling in the 8-10M range (I've looked a bit at this, and it seems the most probable).

If the Ps3 ended at 25M, and sold no more, I would still expect it to sell 6M.

I really expect the Ps3 to sell 45-65M. That means I expect the 30 next million to buy only ~ 3M of GT5, and your OPs 10 million to only move a single extra million.

So, those 15M seems very optimistic as a matter of fact.

one tiny thing.. question: isn't a large portion of the games sales happens when the price of the game is lower.. Like when they become "Greatest Hits".. I'm sure that not all sales will be at full price.. Look at LBP.. it's already cheap at Amazon.co.uk.. doesn't that effect your numbers?

The PS3 will be fine next year. All this doom and gloom is silly. We'll definitely see at least one price cut next year as BR drives will continue to get cheaper and cheaper.

It looks like we'll have 3 healthy consoles this gen, which is great for gaming. We do NOT want only one dominant console. Nintendo already had issues when it was dominant.

As a software developer, I've seen how bad it is when M$ drives competitors out of a market. Borland used to sell compilers for $100 or less, then M$ came in and under cut them, effectively killing Borland. Once that happened, Visual Studio suddenly cost more than $1000 bucks. Same happened with the Word Processer as they under cut Word Perfect (which was a FAR superior product).

If there is one company a gamer should NOT want to dominate the industry, its M$.

the ps3 is fine right now. Its just not selling as well as the other console with a very nice price cut.

I don't understand the point of your math.

Right now, Sony is taking some loss on every PS3 sold. We don't know exactly how much. You are suggesting they cut the price by $50, which would be ineffective anyway, because to the consumer the difference between $350 and $400 isn't all that much.

You think Sony can afford to lose an additional half a billion dollars per year? On top of their mounting losses already? Why wouldn't Sony be interested in profiting from the PS3 in your magic world or at least minimizing their losses. From a business perspective, the PS3 has cost Sony so much already that it doesn't make sense to continue to throw money at it.

Lots of companies still sell compilers though.  Intel sells them, for example.  Other companies release free development environments such as Sun.  Finally, you can get your hands on the gcc compiler suite for free and choose whatever development environment you want.  For my money, GCC+GDB is as good as Visual Studio Express, certainly (Visual Studio Express is the only version I've used in the last couple of years).

He's talking USD.  Games are $59.99 in NA.  Sales taxes are over and above that, and I assume SCEA wouldn't have to pay any import taxes or anything like that.  It's basically a matter of how much retailers pay versus how much we pay.