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Oyvoyvoyv said:

Good point.

 

I have one quite big question  though, that has been asked incredibly many times.

Do publishers really get 38 dollars?

If the game costs 59 dollars (which I am assuming will be the average price for the games sold, rather than the launch price 69 dollars), that means that there are about 8 dollars tax in most countries (14%), lower in some, higher in some.

I can therefore not see the publisher really getting more than 30 dollars pr game.

 

Okay, and a 2nd question.

 

You are talking solely by total sales.

What you should really be looking at, is the increase in sales due to those next millions. Will those sell 15M more because of them? Maybe, but it is no longer conservative, rather the realistic or slightly optimistic.

 

Edit:

 

To add a bit to my point.

 

I see GT5 selling in the 8-10M range (I've looked a bit at this, and it seems the most probable).

If the Ps3 ended at 25M, and sold no more, I would still expect it to sell 6M.

I really expect the Ps3 to sell 45-65M. That means I expect the 30 next million to buy only ~ 3M of GT5, and your OPs 10 million to only move a single extra million.

So, those 15M seems very optimistic as a matter of fact.

 

He's talking USD.  Games are $59.99 in NA.  Sales taxes are over and above that, and I assume SCEA wouldn't have to pay any import taxes or anything like that.  It's basically a matter of how much retailers pay versus how much we pay.