Good question OP.  I don't see any of the games in your post making 1 million, not even Madden given the very small PS3 userbase on the U.S. (and Madden only sells in the U.S.).  I'd have to probably go with GTA IV given the series' history and legs.

Either MGS4 or GTA4.

pes7 in europe 1-2 million seller just this year( pes 6 = 6 millions last year just europe)

lol. your wrong. 60 dollar game x 100k is 6 million in revenue.

revenue is not profit, so how much  they spent on developement , shipping cost, commission to game stores don't matter.(those are expense)

Gross profit = Sales - Cost of Goods

Revenue -expense = profit.

See, I think that it WILL be Madden. This isn't based on any "facts" it's based on the fact that god and EA hate me.

GTA4

Honestly a million seller will be hard to come by. Simply based on the small user base of the PS3. Honestly many of the third parties are bringing their games multiplaform which is going to considerably downsize the ability for a third party title to break the million mark.

My best example is GTA, for ages Sony has gotten every GTA game ages before anyone else in many cases years before its competition. This has lead it to great success on PlayStation consoles. It was a console seller people would buy a PlayStation just for the GTA series. However now that it will be launching on 360 at the exact same time as PS3 their is no longer that incentive to buying a PS product and no incentive to buying the PS3 version over the 360 version. (Small incentive maybe, but would it be enough?)  Now of course GTA has sold up to what 10-million copies for a single game so theirs still a little hope but their aren't even 10-million PS3 owners yet so in the short run not much hope.

I think the first million selling third party game will be FinalFantasy13 honestly Japan is where the PS3 is selling its hottest. It might still be leagues behind the Wii but Japan is Sony's only hope at the moment. FinalFantasy is huge in Japan and as such I would bet that if any title can break the million mark it will be FinalFantasy13. Also even if it does get ported to 360 unlike GTA it won't make much of a differance because the bulk of FF sales come from Japan and 360 is pretty much non-existant in that country.

So their you have it, it might take a while but I'm betting on FF13!

Third parties....hmmm let`s see.

This year the 3P big games are: Madden, Rock Band, GH3, CoD4, Assasins Creed, Burnout, Haze, UT3, NFS.

Madden is going to be a million seller on 360 and PS2. It can get close in PSP, and maybe Wii and XBOX. PS3, I think 500k at most.

Rock Band...most consoles purchased for it will be 360`s, and the peripheral cost is just too big.

GH3...that is likely to sell a million on 360, PS2 and Wii. PS3, not enough userbase, and it may be more expensive than other versions.

CoD4....360 is leadin platform...Beta exclusive to it...though PS3`s shooter had nice sales. Maybe.

AC and Burnout...decent games, but again, the 360 will be the million seller platform. Higher userbase by a lot, and lead platform.

Haze and UT3...depends on how good they are and they marketing. They have the biggest chances in my opinion. 70/30 I think.

If no one hits the million, then either MGS4, FFXIII or GTA IV. Those are the only sure 3P million sellers on PS3.

PES has a better chance than Madden , because it's big in 2 regions (JPN and EU ) , while Madden sales are close to non existent in those two regions

Guitar Hero 3 if it comes out before Call of Duty 4.