I want to know what this community considers the point of no return. More specifically the sales gap that reasonably assures market position for this generation. The vast majority of posters consider the Wii to have locked in first place for this generation. Right now the Wii enjoys a fourteen million margin between itself and the 360. However I cannot remember any serious contention against this once the Wii crossed the ten million differential, and even then it was terribly sparse, and almost non existant in regards to respected posters.

Let me say this I am asking a serious question, and would appreciate serious responses. I also consider anyone using outlandish numbers to be trolling. Check your fanboy name tag at the door. The point of this thread is to get a solid real number. Not to give you something to screw up in service to a cause. Giving ridiculously low margins is just as bad as giving ridiculously high margins. Give an unemotional honest answer.

I want to have this thread be somewhat of an unofficial poll. Where I can take the first fifty real numbers, and find the average. Either way you look at the situation within the next six months either a number is going to be locked in, or a number is going to be averted. Either way we are probably reasonably close to determining the positions for this generation between second and third.

So here is the question what exactly is the margin that must be obtained between the 360 and PS3 for the contest to be decided. You can use margins to the hundred thousands so you can have a decimal followed by a number. I would also consider anything over twelve million to be outlandish, as I would consider anything below seven million to be outlandish. So do not waste your time or mine. Feel free to discuss or elaborate your reasoning. I just want to have a benchmark number so think about what you think is the number that cannot be reasonably contested.

The point of no return isn't established by a sales lead. It's established by brand appeal. Depending on how powerful your brand is you can establish it on day one. Take the PS2 for example. By about half a year into its lifecycle it had pretty much established the point of no return. NDS established its point of return with little more than a 5-10 million lead on PSP or when the DS Lite was introduced.

It's not about how much it is over the other but how much appeal it has garnered. Because if you are the dominant brand then you wil continue to sell at all times while the others will fade in certain times of the year.

I'm not sure Wii has fully established this yet but I think its well on its way and may be there by the end of the year.

Also it's not so much about the gap in total sales as the sustained gap in weekly/monthly sales.

I think it depends on how long the generation has been going on. The fact that the Wii had rushed as far ahead as it did by one year (already passing the 360) shows how much it was and is dominating the market. Had the market stayed a closer race (say the Wii selling between the 360 and PS3 right now) it would be alot harder to call (in that scenario the 360 would be in the lead but not a demanding one.

This.  Wii has cemented first place not only because it has such a lead over 360, but it also continues to outsell 360 by a LARGE margin nearly every single week over the course of its lifetime.

The 360's lead over PS3 is already large enough to declare it as second place IF (And I emphasize IF, because I'm not saying it will end up in 2nd the way things are now) it can continously outsell PS3 by a fair margin nearly every week over the course of a year or so.

If PS3 can manage to overcome 360's LTD sales, it will likely be so late in the gen, that only a 3 or 4 million lead would be needed plus the sustained gap in weekly sales to declare it second.

I would say not a single number, but the timing of the gap is what will determine the point of no return. As it stands, it looks like the 360 will likely come out of this holiday season with a lead of 8-9m units. what will really determine the point of no return, is if this gap continues to widen into 2009, or if Sony can cut into it. If sony goes into the '09 holiday season 10m+ units down, they are at the point of no return. if they are 10m units down when the 360 is entering its 5th year, there's no way they can recover that prior to the release of the next gen of systems.

As it stands now, I think this holiday season is essentially the point of no return. Sony has shrunk the gap to as little as 5m, and I would say that letting it slip to 8m+, as it will be 5-6 weeks from now, will mark momentum they can't match. if 3 years into the PS3's lifecycle the gap is larger than at launch, there is NOTHING coming down the pipeline, or historically, that indicates they could turn the tables.

Well i think we have to be realistic here really. Right now the biggest problem with the PS3 is it's price. I have no doubt that if the 360 and PS3 were the same price the PS3 would be ahead. But the PS3 cannot and never will be as cheap as a 360. Making people have no choice about the extras (wireless etc..) has meant the PS3 is expensive. So because of the fact the world is in financial meltdown and people are unsure of their jobs future i just cannot see people rushing out en masse and buying the PS3 in the same numbers we are seeing for the Wii and the 360 even with a $50-$100 price drop. Since MGS4 was released the PS3 has pretty much lost it's boost and it's image seems to have taken a bit of a battering, especially here in europe. I was in Game yesterday trying to get Rock Band 2 and i was told it was sold out. That was just the solus software. I asked how the consoles had been doing and i was informed the PS3 is doing poor. He told me they were being instructed to make the PS3 space in the stores smaller because they needed the space for Wii and 360 games/consoles as they wanted to make as much money as possible in the most busiest period of the year.

Now to me that shows a totally different trend to what i remember last year and even at this summer. The PS3 occupied the most space in the stores. The fact it has changed shows the stores thought the PS3 would go on to sell miles better then the 360 and the fact it haden't had now made them change their own store selling strategy. So obviously now here in the UK all those people going into a game store will see more Wii/360 on display while the PS3 will get moved to a small corner. This will have a massive impact on those people shopping for Wii/360 products as will make those who dont read websites or have a clue about how well each console is doing know that it isnt doing so well. So in the immediate future that won't help the PS3's situation.
So my point is when the holiday is said and done a lot of the casual market will be aware the PS3 is not doing so good. This could then mean they decide not to buy it next year.

So for me i think this holiday is critical for the PS3. We all know going into your 3rd year sales start to decline. 8m a year sold drops to 6m, then 6m to 5m and so on (assumption those are the numbers). The big numbers will get smaller and smaller. And this in turn makes it difficult to get the numbers needed to claw back the gap.

So i really do think if the PS3 fails to win either US or UK this holiday it will struggle to get it back. While i have no doubt there are a lot of people out there wanting a PS3, the fact that this gen in just 3 years has already seen 78m consoles sold says to me that maybe those people buying a console have already done so.

If this holiday the gap in US turns from the current 7m into say 9m i think that will be it. If the overall gap turns from 6m to say 7m this holiday then that would mean soon as 09 starts the 360 will be in front from the start of the year. Meaning it will have a running start this year over the PS3.

It is this momentum which i think had confirmed number 2 for the 360. Soon as 09 starts the PS3 is not going to suddenly be ahead of the 360 again. It needs something to change the momentum now or the gap will be just to big to get back before the gen is over.

There's no magic number, it's all about who has momentum. It was clear from the beginning the Wii had a ton of momentum but it defied fanboy's logic that an underpowered system with few games they cared about could be the market leader so they denied it up until it was no longer a denyable fact.

In Japan is was obvious 360 would be last the instand Wii and PS3 launched and immediately outsold 360's one year sales total. Who cares what the amount was?

I think the Wii crossed the point of no return the moment it oustsold the 360 LTD on september 2007. As for second place, maybe the point of no return is when the 360 got its price cut?

There are so many rational arguments it is refreshing. Unfortunately I am not entirely sure the debate is actually rational. Yes you can adopt a geological frame of mind where the conclusion is worn out over prolonged periods of time, and I am sure if the gap continues to widen the contention will eventually deplete to nothingness.

However I am merely looking for the topographical feature that is both real and finalizing. That point in the war where the debate is clinched. Where we can say this was the margin needed to absolutely ensure the outcome, and it has been reached. Perhaps the number is rough and dirty. Perhaps it may be tragic that it takes a real number to settle the debate, but I think a number is about all that can settle the debate.

Throughout this generation the entire debate has hinged upon even three, four, five, eight months in the future. As if the finish line is always being moved further and further away. Perhaps to put off the inevitable, or perhaps to buy time for some incredible confluence. I really think this debate will be decided within the next six months. I just want the number that says yes this is where it is settled.