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There's no magic number, it's all about who has momentum. It was clear from the beginning the Wii had a ton of momentum but it defied fanboy's logic that an underpowered system with few games they cared about could be the market leader so they denied it up until it was no longer a denyable fact.

In Japan is was obvious 360 would be last the instand Wii and PS3 launched and immediately outsold 360's one year sales total. Who cares what the amount was?