| Dodece said: I want to know what this community considers the point of no return. More specifically the sales gap that reasonably assures market position for this generation. The vast majority of posters consider the Wii to have locked in first place for this generation. Right now the Wii enjoys a fourteen million margin between itself and the 360. However I cannot remember any serious contention against this once the Wii crossed the ten million differential, and even then it was terribly sparse, and almost non existant in regards to respected posters. Let me say this I am asking a serious question, and would appreciate serious responses. I also consider anyone using outlandish numbers to be trolling. Check your fanboy name tag at the door. The point of this thread is to get a solid real number. Not to give you something to screw up in service to a cause. Giving ridiculously low margins is just as bad as giving ridiculously high margins. Give an unemotional honest answer. I want to have this thread be somewhat of an unofficial poll. Where I can take the first fifty real numbers, and find the average. Either way you look at the situation within the next six months either a number is going to be locked in, or a number is going to be averted. Either way we are probably reasonably close to determining the positions for this generation between second and third. So here is the question what exactly is the margin that must be obtained between the 360 and PS3 for the contest to be decided. You can use margins to the hundred thousands so you can have a decimal followed by a number. I would also consider anything over twelve million to be outlandish, as I would consider anything below seven million to be outlandish. So do not waste your time or mine. Feel free to discuss or elaborate your reasoning. I just want to have a benchmark number so think about what you think is the number that cannot be reasonably contested. |
I would say not a single number, but the timing of the gap is what will determine the point of no return. As it stands, it looks like the 360 will likely come out of this holiday season with a lead of 8-9m units. what will really determine the point of no return, is if this gap continues to widen into 2009, or if Sony can cut into it. If sony goes into the '09 holiday season 10m+ units down, they are at the point of no return. if they are 10m units down when the 360 is entering its 5th year, there's no way they can recover that prior to the release of the next gen of systems.
As it stands now, I think this holiday season is essentially the point of no return. Sony has shrunk the gap to as little as 5m, and I would say that letting it slip to 8m+, as it will be 5-6 weeks from now, will mark momentum they can't match. if 3 years into the PS3's lifecycle the gap is larger than at launch, there is NOTHING coming down the pipeline, or historically, that indicates they could turn the tables.
