Well i think we have to be realistic here really. Right now the biggest problem with the PS3 is it's price. I have no doubt that if the 360 and PS3 were the same price the PS3 would be ahead. But the PS3 cannot and never will be as cheap as a 360. Making people have no choice about the extras (wireless etc..) has meant the PS3 is expensive. So because of the fact the world is in financial meltdown and people are unsure of their jobs future i just cannot see people rushing out en masse and buying the PS3 in the same numbers we are seeing for the Wii and the 360 even with a $50-$100 price drop. Since MGS4 was released the PS3 has pretty much lost it's boost and it's image seems to have taken a bit of a battering, especially here in europe. I was in Game yesterday trying to get Rock Band 2 and i was told it was sold out. That was just the solus software. I asked how the consoles had been doing and i was informed the PS3 is doing poor. He told me they were being instructed to make the PS3 space in the stores smaller because they needed the space for Wii and 360 games/consoles as they wanted to make as much money as possible in the most busiest period of the year.
Now to me that shows a totally different trend to what i remember last year and even at this summer. The PS3 occupied the most space in the stores. The fact it has changed shows the stores thought the PS3 would go on to sell miles better then the 360 and the fact it haden't had now made them change their own store selling strategy. So obviously now here in the UK all those people going into a game store will see more Wii/360 on display while the PS3 will get moved to a small corner. This will have a massive impact on those people shopping for Wii/360 products as will make those who dont read websites or have a clue about how well each console is doing know that it isnt doing so well. So in the immediate future that won't help the PS3's situation.
So my point is when the holiday is said and done a lot of the casual market will be aware the PS3 is not doing so good. This could then mean they decide not to buy it next year.
So for me i think this holiday is critical for the PS3. We all know going into your 3rd year sales start to decline. 8m a year sold drops to 6m, then 6m to 5m and so on (assumption those are the numbers). The big numbers will get smaller and smaller. And this in turn makes it difficult to get the numbers needed to claw back the gap.
So i really do think if the PS3 fails to win either US or UK this holiday it will struggle to get it back. While i have no doubt there are a lot of people out there wanting a PS3, the fact that this gen in just 3 years has already seen 78m consoles sold says to me that maybe those people buying a console have already done so.
If this holiday the gap in US turns from the current 7m into say 9m i think that will be it. If the overall gap turns from 6m to say 7m this holiday then that would mean soon as 09 starts the 360 will be in front from the start of the year. Meaning it will have a running start this year over the PS3.
It is this momentum which i think had confirmed number 2 for the 360. Soon as 09 starts the PS3 is not going to suddenly be ahead of the 360 again. It needs something to change the momentum now or the gap will be just to big to get back before the gen is over.
