Anybody want to take me up on a bet that the PS3 will not be discontinued till at least two years into the next generation? I say 2012-2014.

They will not discontinue because Ps3 PLUS the attachment rate is still making money for Sony.
I don't even know where to begin explaining why your reasoning doesn't work.

I think the odds are not very high it will be discontinued, a few days ago I said less than 5% though now I'd put them a bit higher than that (not much though).

However, this is still off-topic.

@WiiStation360: That's true, but the console market was doing fine for a while with only two consoles. But of course one of the three dropping in the middle of the generation would still be a big deal to gamers.

By mid 2010 it likely won't matter as much anymore (That was how long the Xbox 1 lasted, oh the irony!) So really the sooner from this date, the greater the shockwaves. With such a large structural change in the market, the biggest winner would be Nintendo and developers who develop for Nintendo as that market would be immune to anything which happened to it.

In the end it would be more a psychological blow to the industry rather than a severe financial one. The PS3 has a 16 million console userbase and like all big things, even if you strike the death blow it takes a while for the thing to actually die, probably over a year before you could actually confirm it as dead. But I think I stated in a wayyy earlier thread which asked pretty much the same thing that the importance of any one player is overstated, its more the emotional attachment or fear of change that makes people think doom and gloom from something like this happening.

If it was discontinued, just about no game would be profitable. They would be if they went to both the Wii/360, but seeing as the Wii versions of many multiplatform games are dumbed down I don't know how well this would work out.

Also, as many multiplats are not on the Wii whatsoever (PS3/360 only), the devs may choose to bring their PS3 exclusives to 360 only because it's more similar hardware-wise. That means even less profitability, unless Microsoft could somehow bring PS3 owners over to their console. This is next to impossible in Japan and not likely in Others, where Sony has a stronger fanbase. The U.S. is a different story, but I've read many a post where people are put off by the 360's hardware failures...

Then, seeing as almost no game is profitable, the devs would start to go out of business and then we're in 1983 again, but worse.

There is no way this is happening. http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6609658.html

Ps3 cost is dropping rapidly, game sales are way up, and so are BR movies. The two areas that people think are hurting sony the most are actually doing very very well, and its the electronics division that is losing so much income.

Sony is not going to drop a console that is making them money.

Competition ends. The Wii gets nothing but shovelware anyway, so it only buts the burden on the 360. You think GG is making Killzone 2 look the way it does for nothing? They want to have a new game that raises the standard in the industry so far, but if nobody is competing to do such a thing, then gamers suffer

I'm not so sure about that. 360 would definitely see a hardware boost without an alternative HD console, but I don't think it would pick up all of the PS3's hardware sales. The big problem for 360 is that development could take a big hit without another HD console inflating the "HD marketshare."

Ironically, the 360 might actually be better off with the PS3 still in the game than it would be without it.

it wouldn't happen

if ps3 got discontinued sony will still be making games for whichever console they see fit, sony games like killzone, granturismo, jakdaxter etc, etc will be licensed on the 360, wii or whatever console is available and they will still be making tons of money.