It isnt a matter of game library at all. The competition this years is too tough compared to last year. Wii is even more popular than last year and X360 with its price cut is doing huge damages to PS3 sales.

19 millions max is a safe bet.

Christ I thought is was a given they would reach 21 million (and X360 would reach 26.5)

I still think it will make 20 million though even if it is a close one.

I think it will make around 19.8, with the 360 extending its lead to 26.5/27

It will be a close one. Sony is going to sell less than last year so it seems. As others pointed out, the competition is much tougher. Last year their console competition was priced just 25% less than the PS3 and with the BR it was fairly easy to convince buyers to shell a little extra for the extra functionality.

This year, not only that Sony is twice the price of the console competition, but it is not a good BR deal anymore as well. The BR players are hitting sub $130 prices this Friday so the PS3 gets to be the pricey console with the pricey BR player.

The Playstation brand name is also eroding. Not just because of missteps, but also out of old age. The mythic 110M PS2 base is not there anymore. It grew up and moved on. Based on the platform sales, the actual active PS2 install base is probably rangng aroundjust 15M. This base is rapidly shrinking with most of the past PS2 customers have already picked their current gen console or just grew up to chase girls, build a career and family and generaly lose interest in gaming.

And of course - the economic situation is not helping Sony at all.

With all that said, I think Sony will report 20M units shipped. They reported 16.84M units shipped by the end of the last quarter so getting another 3.16 shipped this quarter is pretty much a sure thing. In fact, 4M units shipped for the whole quarter is my bet. However, with about 1M units stay in channel inventory, it will translate to just under 20M units sold to consumers.

nope 19 million at most.

bigger chance for Wii to hit 45 million then PS3 hitting 20 million.

Some weks it will go lower but other weeks it will go higher than those 444k, So I expect it to pass 20million this year.

I'll give my opinion once I see this weeks numbers, but if it's close to 300K I think it has a shot but if it's still around 200K or even 250K, well then I don't think it'll make it.

xbox 360 will be 26-27 this year, ps3 19 mil most

i say that it is a 50/50 chance.

19 million seems much more likely at this point.