Is there a chance the PS3 WON'T hit 20m this year?

[amirnetz]

It will be a close one. Sony is going to sell less than last year so it seems. As others pointed out, the competition is much tougher. Last year their console competition was priced just 25% less than the PS3 and with the BR it was fairly easy to convince buyers to shell a little extra for the extra functionality.

This year, not only that Sony is twice the price of the console competition, but it is not a good BR deal anymore as well. The BR players are hitting sub $130 prices this Friday so the PS3 gets to be the pricey console with the pricey BR player.

The Playstation brand name is also eroding. Not just because of missteps, but also out of old age. The mythic 110M PS2 base is not there anymore. It grew up and moved on. Based on the platform sales, the actual active PS2 install base is probably rangng aroundjust 15M. This base is rapidly shrinking with most of the past PS2 customers have already picked their current gen console or just grew up to chase girls, build a career and family and generaly lose interest in gaming.

And of course - the economic situation is not helping Sony at all.

With all that said, I think Sony will report 20M units shipped. They reported 16.84M units shipped by the end of the last quarter so getting another 3.16 shipped this quarter is pretty much a sure thing. In fact, 4M units shipped for the whole quarter is my bet. However, with about 1M units stay in channel inventory, it will translate to just under 20M units sold to consumers.