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Forums - Sales Discussion - Is there a chance the PS3 WON'T hit 20m this year?

Blacksaber on 23 November 2008

I give a 50/50 chance of doing if it does it's going get over by about 80K or so...



Former something....

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ultimate_123 on 23 November 2008

It might, JUST might make it past 20 million. I think if the 360 didn't have a price-cut then definately it would have made it past 20 million but now, hmmm... not really sure. Funny how much $50/£30 can do for a console. Maybe Sony should do the same for the PS3.



End of '08 predictions (made by theprof00): PS3: 20m, 360: 23.5m, wii: 42m

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goddog on 23 November 2008
ultimate_123 said:
It might, JUST might make it past 20 million. I think if the 360 didn't have a price-cut then definately it would have made it past 20 million but now, hmmm... not really sure. Funny how much $50/£30 can do for a console. Maybe Sony should do the same for the PS3.

 

yes skipping on the yearly price cut hurts, consumers have grown to expect it, and its very hard to unlearn things like that. then comes the price point saturation which sony has it, as evidence the inability to beat last years world wide sales at this point



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NJ5 on 23 November 2008
WiiStation360 said:

There are 7 weeks of sales left in the year. 

Lets compared the sales for Oct-mid Nov 2007 (7weeks) to the sales for the rest of 2007 (7 weeks) to get a estimate of the holiday bump for consoles.

 

PS3 360 Wii
06th Oct 2007 to 17th Nov 2007 1,183,136 1,401,873 2,061,954
24th Nov 2007 to 05th Jan 2008 3,050,990 2,783,488 5,391,289
Percent Increase 258% 199% 261%

Now, lets look at the Oct-mid Nov 2008 7 week number for 2008.

 

PS3 360 Wii
04th Oct 2008 to 15th Nov 2008 1,198,380 1,658,605 3,173,150

If we assume that every console gets a bump between the low-high for last year, the next 7 weeks should look like this.

 

PS3 360 Wii
199% Increase          2,379,443          3,293,242          6,300,446
261% Increase          3,133,345          4,336,672          8,296,678

 

That give us end of the year end sales range of the following.

 

PS3 360 Wii
Current 16,893,063 22,926,812 36,614,033
Min 2008         19,272,506         26,220,054         42,914,479
Max 2008         20,026,408         27,263,484         44,910,711

So the PS3 will most likely fall just short of 20M consoles this year.  Unless it can at least match the Wii sales boost for last Holiday season.

Great analysis. The PS3 had a price cut around this time last year, so I think we can expect a lower holiday boost. Therefore my bet is also that it won't reach 20m.

 



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Zombl337 on 23 November 2008

Wont happen with both 360 & Wii being cheaper and 360 just out sold PS3 300,000 units to PS3's 200,000 units.....PS3 would have to DOUBLE its current sales for the next 7 weeks, and that just wont happen. By the time PS3 is at 20M, 360 will be at 27-30M I predict, and Wii will be over 45M.



PREDICTIONS:
360 will outsell PS3 YTD for 2008. (CHECK!)
360 will have the best showing at E3 & TGS in 2009
2009 will be another year for the 360 over PS3
End OF 2009 SALES :: 360 - 40M;  PS3 - 30M; Wii - 70M

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Max King of the Wild on 23 November 2008
Kasz216 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:

Im not saying new release shouldnt push hardware, im saying that hardware should have been up without the assistance of software if you consider last years numbers in japan.  

 on the 100k, so you dont trust ioi, or NPD (I dont trust the npd personally and haven't for over a year), what else will you not trust if it does not show favorable numbers.    

200k is low for the lead into holiday season where 150 is good for standard year. you can not compare lead up weeks for the same year to see if growth is healthy for a season, you can compare years, where growth has been flat to down. 

I will give you, wait till black friday, but unless they drop the price i do not see any evidence here that the trend will change

 

 

 The only reason I come back to this site regularly is because I know ioi will adjust the numbers after financials come out. (he was pretty spot on last quarter and I have my doubts this quarter. that however is a different thread) So basically I only trust official numbers and this site after those numbers come out.

And I'm saying last year the Ps3 had Dynasty Warriors 6 release... the Ps3 obviously recieved a boost from it. Just because it isnt tracking the same the same weeks doesnt mean in wont track the same when all is said and done (DW6 may be big but I think WKC is bigger)

You may be surprised there.

In Japan DW6 is the 3rd best selling PS3 game in Japan behind MGS4 and Hot Shots Golf.  Is WKC going to be bigger then GT5P or PES2008?

 

 

 First of all GT5P wasn't all that big in Japan (270k shipped AND downloaded). And secondly I wasn't talking long term sales I was talking about short term. And yeah... I think WKC could be bigger than 186k which DW6 got opening week.



jingho on 23 November 2008

impossible



kylohk on 23 November 2008

Whoever makes a price cut near Xmas will get a big boost, even if the cut is small.

During christmas, many goods receive price cuts and are shown in ads. Things with lowered prices always draw the shoppers' attention.



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Kasz216 on 23 November 2008
Max King of the Wild said:
Kasz216 said:
Max King of the Wild said:
goddog said:

Im not saying new release shouldnt push hardware, im saying that hardware should have been up without the assistance of software if you consider last years numbers in japan.  

 on the 100k, so you dont trust ioi, or NPD (I dont trust the npd personally and haven't for over a year), what else will you not trust if it does not show favorable numbers.    

200k is low for the lead into holiday season where 150 is good for standard year. you can not compare lead up weeks for the same year to see if growth is healthy for a season, you can compare years, where growth has been flat to down. 

I will give you, wait till black friday, but unless they drop the price i do not see any evidence here that the trend will change

 

 

 The only reason I come back to this site regularly is because I know ioi will adjust the numbers after financials come out. (he was pretty spot on last quarter and I have my doubts this quarter. that however is a different thread) So basically I only trust official numbers and this site after those numbers come out.

And I'm saying last year the Ps3 had Dynasty Warriors 6 release... the Ps3 obviously recieved a boost from it. Just because it isnt tracking the same the same weeks doesnt mean in wont track the same when all is said and done (DW6 may be big but I think WKC is bigger)

You may be surprised there.

In Japan DW6 is the 3rd best selling PS3 game in Japan behind MGS4 and Hot Shots Golf.  Is WKC going to be bigger then GT5P or PES2008?

 

 

 First of all GT5P wasn't all that big in Japan (270k shipped AND downloaded). And secondly I wasn't talking long term sales I was talking about short term. And yeah... I think WKC could be bigger than 186k which DW6 got opening week.

GT5P was the 4th highest selling PS3 game there is.  I'd consider that big.

I think you overestimate software sales in Japan.

The best selling PS3 game in Japan has sold like 660,000.

DW is at 410,000.

Dynasty Warrior 4 was the 10th best selling PS3 game in japan.

Dynasty Warriors is huge in japan.



Max King of the Wild on 23 November 2008

I think you are underestimating SW sales. I think WKC could do very well and get to around 500k LT

Also user base for Ps3 when DW6 came out - 1,343,116

User base for WKC > 2,492,325