Is there a chance the PS3 WON'T hit 20m this year?

[NJ5]

WiiStation360 said:

There are 7 weeks of sales left in the year. 

Lets compared the sales for Oct-mid Nov 2007 (7weeks) to the sales for the rest of 2007 (7 weeks) to get a estimate of the holiday bump for consoles.

 

	PS3	360	Wii
06th Oct 2007 to 17th Nov 2007	1,183,136	1,401,873	2,061,954
24th Nov 2007 to 05th Jan 2008	3,050,990	2,783,488	5,391,289
Percent Increase	258%	199%	261%

Now, lets look at the Oct-mid Nov 2008 7 week number for 2008.

 

	PS3	360	Wii
04th Oct 2008 to 15th Nov 2008	1,198,380	1,658,605	3,173,150

If we assume that every console gets a bump between the low-high for last year, the next 7 weeks should look like this.

 

	PS3	360	Wii
199% Increase	2,379,443	3,293,242	6,300,446
261% Increase	3,133,345	4,336,672	8,296,678

 

That give us end of the year end sales range of the following.

 

	PS3	360	Wii
Current	16,893,063	22,926,812	36,614,033
Min 2008	19,272,506	26,220,054	42,914,479
Max 2008	20,026,408	27,263,484	44,910,711

So the PS3 will most likely fall just short of 20M consoles this year.  Unless it can at least match the Wii sales boost for last Holiday season.

Great analysis. The PS3 had a price cut around this time last year, so I think we can expect a lower holiday boost. Therefore my bet is also that it won't reach 20m.