It should stll give a boost for the month of december, because not everyone will be picking up a bluray player on that day. Were I live the bluray players are still $299 and the bd live enabled blurays are $399 and up. So therefore people who want to get the latest bluray player which we all know the sales people will be pushing, the PS3 is still in that price range, plus it plays games making it the more reasonable purchase.

Why put down PS3 sales? I actually see the PS3 a mostly holiday-driven consoles due to the fact it is quite expensive :D

So you are predicting that the PS3 sells 100k FEWER consoles in NA this year than last year for Nov/Dec. (1.3M last year)

Even though PS3 sales are up over 80% in NA this year from Jan to October when comparing 2007 to 2008?

That seems very odd.

I think spending limits, even with the joblessness and general tough times worldwide, tend to go out the window in North America and Europe for the middle class, and so people who were unable to justify buying a PS3 in January to October can probably justify it a bit easier in November and December...which could lead to stronger increases than a normal system selling 190k in October would get.

all consoles will do just fine.

The software sales will suffer a lot more than console sales. Instead of maybe buying 4-5 games, a consumer might only buy 2-3 games and get the rest later at discount. And instead of a holiday shopper buying a console and 2-3 games, they might buy one or no games, since most systems will include bundled games.

Not so odd considering the fact that last year the PS3 enjoyed a price cut boost but not this year, that its primary competitor is now half of its price and sub $200, that it moved from being the cheapest BR player in the market to being priced x3 more than the cheapest and that the general economics times are tough.

Trending from growth of the PS3 over the first 3 quarters of 2007 is very misleading. The sales of the SP3 during the $500-$600 price tag period were abismal. Showing strong growth from these prices is not that hard. The PS3 is now priced the same way it was priced during last years holiday so you cannot assume any such growth anymore. In fact, with a standard ratio of Dec:Nov:Oct of 4:2:1 and using the NPD numbers for October you'll get PS3 sales in the USA for Nov at 380K and Dec at 760K - significantly under even the projection in the table above.

Any pointer to affirm such expected beahvior?

The way I see it, causal buyers (often people who buy systems for other people) with all things equal will tend to go for the system that cost less. Paying double for the same games will make no sense to them.

I disagree as well. $400 will be a bitter pill to swallow for the holiday shopper, especially when sitting next to $200 candy.

candy that has no hard drive, no wifi, no blu ray and a chance of getting you sick (rrod), yea that sounds more like a lemon head to me than sweet candy.