Holiday Projections Revisited

[amirnetz]

WiiStation360 said:
So you are predicting that the PS3 sells 100k FEWER consoles in NA this year than last year for Nov/Dec. (1.3M last year)

Even though PS3 sales are up over 80% in NA this year from Jan to October when comparing 2007 to 2008?

That seems very odd.

Not so odd considering the fact that last year the PS3 enjoyed a price cut boost but not this year, that its primary competitor is now half of its price and sub $200, that it moved from being the cheapest BR player in the market to being priced x3 more than the cheapest and that the general economics times are tough.

Trending from growth of the PS3 over the first 3 quarters of 2007 is very misleading. The sales of the SP3 during the $500-$600 price tag period were abismal. Showing strong growth from these prices is not that hard. The PS3 is now priced the same way it was priced during last years holiday so you cannot assume any such growth anymore. In fact, with a standard ratio of Dec:Nov:Oct of 4:2:1 and using the NPD numbers for October you'll get PS3 sales in the USA for Nov at 380K and Dec at 760K - significantly under even the projection in the table above.