On Nov 10th TheSource published a detailed analysis past holiday and mothly season sales and attempted to project the estimate sales for the various systems for the holiday season.

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=2507

I copied TheSource's final projection below. 

Since TheSource published the analysis, a few more data points have been accumulated that may warrent revisiting the projection.

First - NPD published the USA numbers for October. As you may all recall, the Wii outsold the 360 at a ratio of 2:1 and the 360 in its turn outsold the PS3 2:1.

Second - We have a couple of new weekly numbers for "Others".

Starting with the NPD numbers: While the Wii:360 ratio is well represented in the table above (Wii sales projection is almost double the 360), the second ratio is very inconsitent with the the projection above. The projection in the table is however very consistent with the somewhat infamous VGC assesment of October's sales ahead of October's NPD publication.

If the 360 outsold the PS3 by a ratio of 2:1 in October, shouldn't we assume a roughly similar ratio for November and December? What will make the PS3 suddenly pick up momentum during the last weeks of the year? Based on the not-so-impressive sales figures, the PS3 exclusives certainly are not going to change the market dynamics established in October.

It seems that if anything, entering the xmas season, the 360 will appeal much more to the holiday causual buyers than the PS3 due to its low price combined with the recession. It may almost be an "impulse buy". Sorry could not resist the reuse of the infamous quote.

In light of that, I suggest the PS3 USA holiday sales projection will need to drop to around 1.2M to reflect the 2:1 sales ratio.

Regarding the second point: In "Others" TheSource gave the edge to the PS3 by almost 30% over the 360. However, the weekly numbers for several weeks in a row now confirm that the the 360 is consistently maintaining a 10% lead over the PS3 in the "Others" region.

Again, there is no reason to assume a reversal in the trend for the rest of the year. Therefore the PS3 projection will need to be trimmed down to 1.8M to reflect the new data.

With Japan's projections staying untouched the new projection table should probably look like

If this updated projection holds true, then the 350 will extend its lead over the PS3 during the holidays by about 1.2M units to open a 7M units advantage over the PS3 and gain a very strong momentum starting 2009.

Other opinions?

The PS3 had a price cut last year which made a huge difference. This year's projections are based on the same growth, which is just plain wrong.

yea no year is ever the same, also theres no hddvd anymore to split sales, theres big ps3 exclusives out now also.

I have to disagree with your analysis. People will be looking to pick up bluray players for christmas with their newly purchased HDTV's and also looking for presents for kids ect which is usually some sort of gaming machine. Then with big blockbuster's like The Dark Knight, Step Brother's, Narnia, Tropic Thunder, ect being released next month on Bluray, that should help Sony move some more PS3's than originally expected.

This.

Interesting analysis, amirnetz.  Your projections are based on more current info, so it does bear some merit.  But there is a definite possibility that the 360 numbers were more LOW than the PS3 numbers were high.  As the Americas numbers come in for last week in the next couple days, the projections for November (and basically the rest of the year) will be able to be more accurately projected, because it would be unrealistic to think that the trends halfway through November would suddenly change.

@nirvana,

I can't wait to see how many Dark Knight blu rays get sold, it will def break the record iron man set... I actually prefer to see movies in blu ray now than waste my time going to the movie theater seeing it one time.

So because in the last month the 360 has outsold the PS3 2:1 in America, and by 10% in Others they think it will continue?

This increase was caused by the price drop and Gears of War, while it'd be wrong to say the two would have no effect on Holiday sales, it is also wrong to assume that the weeks after the two are indicative of Holiday sales. Especially in Others.

I'd imagine quite a few people have held off buying a PS3 for possible Holiday bundles, or simply because it'd be easier to obtain the funds to get one at that time.

Only time will tell...

If true, that would put the 360 ahead of the PS3 WW in 2008.

Nirvana_Nut85

"People will be looking to pick up bluray players for christmas with their newly purchased HDTV's and also looking for presents for kids ect which is usually some sort of gaming machine"

If people are interested in BR player, they can pick one up for less than $150 this black Friday. Last year the PS3 was the cheapest BR player around and it got a nice boost from it. Now the standalone BR players are way cheaper than the PS3. So much so that a 360 + BR player is actually cheaper than a PS3.

So, I don't think Sony can build on a BR boost this year in the current competitive landscape.

The 360 started its boost since the price drop in late september and it continued in full swing in October. GOW2 was actually out only in November and it is fair to say that it was a much greater commercial success than all of the PS3 titles combined. So if anything, you should expect an additional boost for the 360 beyond what you have seen in October.

Similarly, the boost of the 360 in "Others" is consitent over the last two months. If you are looking for bundles than the 360 is one-upping the PS3 in Europe in that department. So I don't think this is why the PS3 is lagging for 8 weeks.

I have not heard yet any compelliing reason to believe that the trend exihibted in late-september + full october is going to change directions and the numbers so far for November are continuing this trend.