Holiday Projections Revisited

[amirnetz]

On Nov 10th TheSource published a detailed analysis past holiday and mothly season sales and attempted to project the estimate sales for the various systems for the holiday season.

http://news.vgchartz.com/news.php?id=2507

I copied TheSource's final projection below. 

08' Holiday Proj.	Americas	Total Others	Japan	World Total
DS	4,542,237	6,771,538	855,566	12,169,340
Wii	3,938,903	4,483,703	690,688	9,113,293
PS3	1,711,005	2,621,095	245,474	4,577,574
Xbox 360	2,323,764	2,064,751	101,472	4,489,987
PSP	1,628,975	1,366,711	859,027	3,854,713
PS2	1,128,233	1,631,386	79,406	2,839,025

Since TheSource published the analysis, a few more data points have been accumulated that may warrent revisiting the projection.

First - NPD published the USA numbers for October. As you may all recall, the Wii outsold the 360 at a ratio of 2:1 and the 360 in its turn outsold the PS3 2:1.

Second - We have a couple of new weekly numbers for "Others".

Starting with the NPD numbers: While the Wii:360 ratio is well represented in the table above (Wii sales projection is almost double the 360), the second ratio is very inconsitent with the the projection above. The projection in the table is however very consistent with the somewhat infamous VGC assesment of October's sales ahead of October's NPD publication.

If the 360 outsold the PS3 by a ratio of 2:1 in October, shouldn't we assume a roughly similar ratio for November and December? What will make the PS3 suddenly pick up momentum during the last weeks of the year? Based on the not-so-impressive sales figures, the PS3 exclusives certainly are not going to change the market dynamics established in October.

It seems that if anything, entering the xmas season, the 360 will appeal much more to the holiday causual buyers than the PS3 due to its low price combined with the recession. It may almost be an "impulse buy". Sorry could not resist the reuse of the infamous quote.

In light of that, I suggest the PS3 USA holiday sales projection will need to drop to around 1.2M to reflect the 2:1 sales ratio.

Regarding the second point: In "Others" TheSource gave the edge to the PS3 by almost 30% over the 360. However, the weekly numbers for several weeks in a row now confirm that the the 360 is consistently maintaining a 10% lead over the PS3 in the "Others" region.

Again, there is no reason to assume a reversal in the trend for the rest of the year. Therefore the PS3 projection will need to be trimmed down to 1.8M to reflect the new data.

With Japan's projections staying untouched the new projection table should probably look like

08' Holiday Proj.	Americas	Total Others	Japan	World Total
DS	4,542,237	6,771,538	855,566	12,169,340
Wii	3,938,903	4,483,703	690,688	9,113,293
PS3	1,200,000	1,800,000	245,474	3,245,474
Xbox 360	2,323,764	2,064,751	101,472	4,489,987
PSP	1,628,975	1,366,711	859,027	3,854,713
PS2	1,128,233	1,631,386	79,406	2,839,025

If this updated projection holds true, then the 350 will extend its lead over the PS3 during the holidays by about 1.2M units to open a 7M units advantage over the PS3 and gain a very strong momentum starting 2009.

Other opinions?