Sadly No.

I don't think the PS3 will get to 11 million mark
(SOLD TO THE ENDUSER CUSTOMER) until late July of 2008
It will do slightly better then the 360 in the same amount of time with launches alligned.

I'm not seeing this holiday rush as a big pick me up for Sony.
The games mentioned above will sell, but how many NEW customers will they sell to? I say they get to 2.5 million in Nov and Dec... but lameduck sales for all the other months with small spikes due to the must have software.

 I assume atleast 3.5million for Holidays remember first Europe/Other Christmas with PS3 here is the breakdown:

Christmas sales.

EU/Other:1.5million

NA:1-1.5million

JP:1-1.5million Thats an easy 3.5million sales during Christmas.

Sales from now till Christmas07:

August WW(with Lair and Madden):340k

September WW(Heavenly Sword?):300k

October WW(GTA4 and others i think):340k

Total WW for Aug+Sep+Oct=980k

Jan08 WW:250k

Feb08WW:245k

Mar08WW(MGS4?):400k

Total WW for Jan+Feb+Mar08=845k

Total from now to Mar08=5.35million/6.35million sales=TotalWW sales for PS3 by Mar08=9.35/10.35million.

Darn just off but not far away from the 11million sold for Mar08.

(My numbers might be abit off due to these months havent happened yet).

 Didn't they say they'd ship 11 million *during* fiscal 2008?  So that'd be 16.5 million total units shipped by April '08.

Short answer "no" 

To customers 7.5 Millions at end of 2007
To customers 9 Millions at end March of 2008

Here is what I think

november at 6.5m
january at 9.0m
march (the price drop) 11.5m
july 08- 13.5m
end of 08- 20million sold....at this time we will see a $399.99 ps3..with all its features :D



END OF 2008 ESTIMATES

1.wii- loosing huge momentum around 24-26m

2.ps3- gaining momentum around 18-22m

3.360- loosing life around 16-19m

END OF 09

1.ps3-still holding momentum around 30-34m

2.wii- becoming a gamecube around 28-32m

3.360-last microsoft console around 20-24m

Why will ps3 sell better than wii and why will wii lose momentum?

The ps3 will drop to $399.99 in march, they always drop the price in march, if this occurs the sales will rocket to as much they have sold in the holidays. 3rd party will make more exclusives on the ps3 than on 360 etc...
Wii will lose momentum due to lack of thought for any new ideas, console owners may start getting bored of moving there arms every day to play a game.

360 will die just like genesis, and sega saturn, atari you name it, 07 will be the last of the great 360 years for sales.

Nice estimates leo-j they have a high chance of coming true.

This is generally what I think as well, though I actually think it will be closer to 9.5 million at April 2008, due to the January "tail" of the holiday season.

What strikes me as absurd about all of this is that we can look at the 360 and PS3 with launches aligned right here on this site. The PS3 and 360 are pretty much neck and neck on this graph, with the 360 having a slight advantage, if anything.

We see that the 360 has been out for an extra year and has still not sold 11m units. It too looks to have jumped almost 3m units over the holidays, and it's pretty certain that it got a boost from the scarcity of the Wii and PS3 during their launches.

The PS3 would have to do almost twice as well as the 360 did in order to get to 11m by March '08, and it would have to do almost three times as well to hit it by the end of the year.

First off, the PS3 is going to sell more in 2 months in Japan than they have sold in 8.5 months? 500,000 seems like a far more reasonable estimate ...

North America and Europe holiday seem amazingly optimistic because they are (roughly) the same as the XBox 360 last year and the PS3 is a higher price, and faces far tougher competition.

Please make a poll for this