Never... 64 mil/110weaks=581818,1818 Wii's per weak. Dont think they'll make it...

It isn't going to happen.

In order to reach 100 million by that point in time, the Wii would have to reach 80 million by the end of 2009. Even if the Wii sold 1 million units per week for the rest of the year, it would be at 43 million, which means that it would need to sell 37 million in one year. Even if the remaining total of 57 million were split up between two years, it would have to sell 28.5 million/year, which is even more than the DS at its best.

Ike said: Never... (64M units / 110 weeks) = 581,818.2 Wii's per weak. I dont think they'll make it...

 

This average is fairly deceptive given that we will be going through 3 holiday seasons between now and then ('08, '09, and '10 holidays). 

Over the next 2 holidays, and what is left of the current one, the Wii will probably sell somewhere around 32M units.  This gives us  32M units to sell in about 90 weeks, or about 355k per week.  Which as we saw this year, the Wii is certainly capable of. 

@Lord N,

How do you figure they have to be at 80M by the end of '09? 

As for the 1M units issue, you do realize that more than likely the Wii will break, or come very close to breaking, 2M units in a single week for the week ending Dec 20th?  And there is a very good chance that the 3 weeks preceeding and the week following that will all be 1M+ weeks as well. 

We are only 2 weeks into Nov and the Wii has already sold 1M units, and is half a million units ahead of where it was last year when it sold ~6M units in Nov & Dec.  The Wii has at the very least another 7M sales to go before this holiday is over, mark my words~

Lord N said: It isn't going to happen. In order to reach 100 million by that point in time, the Wii would have to reach 80 million by the end of 2009. Even if the Wii sold 1 million units per week for the rest of the year, it would be at 43 million, which means that it would need to sell 37 million in one year. Even if the remaining total of 57 million were split up between two years, it would have to sell 28.5 million/year, which is even more than the DS at its best.

Nintendo IS shipping 28 million Wii's per year right now. It will reach 80 million by end March 2010 after which it will definitely reach 100 million end 2010. There will be around 10 million Wii's sold Nov/Dec so Wii will most definitely be around 45 million end 2008.

Edit: The only way Wii won't make 100 million end 2010 is if demand suddenly drops, which isn't very likely seeing the close to sold out status of the last two years. Damnd hasn't even been met yet, let alone we see it drop. And, again, Wii isn't at the famous "under $200" yet.

Lord N said: It isn't going to happen. In order to reach 100 million by that point in time, the Wii would have to reach 80 million by the end of 2009. Even if the Wii sold 1 million units per week for the rest of the year, it would be at 43 million, which means that it would need to sell 37 million in one year. Even if the remaining total of 57 million were split up between two years, it would have to sell 28.5 million/year, which is even more than the DS at its best.

 

DS shipped 30.31m in the fiscal year that ended in March, 2008, and N are projecting sales of 30.5m for the current fiscal year, along with 27.5m Wiis. (They generally underestimate.)

 

http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2008/081030e.pdf