What is the recommended number of sales should a console manufacterd should have to consider that developers can make games for it?? should it be 10 million?? Like for example, Konami said they wouldn't release MGS4 until the install base was huge...what should the install base be??

Depends on the company, there is no number really, and theyll release MGS4 in early 2008 good install base or not.

Hard to say what Konami in particular is looking for the install base to be; "huge" is about as relative as it gets.

I guess that at this point, a huge install base is one that ranks higher than the install bases of other systems. Right now, the 360 and Wii have "huge" install bases (though only by current next-gen standards). Compared to systems from other generations, or the current handheld market, they're considerably smaller, but only because those install bases have had more time to grow.

I think that once a system hits a certain number for install base they are pretty much considered successful and will enjoy lots of developer support. That's why I think the big 3 players will be successful this generation. All 3 will be over 30 million, which I see as a significant enough number to guarantee success. Some sooner than later. I've heard of a Sony rep saying that the Wii will die off in 2 or 3 years. But in 2 or 3 years the Wii will be between 30 and 40 million, maybe more. That won't be considered a failure. The PS3 will have picked up at that time with the 360 holding steady so neither of these will be considered failures either. This should be the generation where we can all enjoy success and look forward to lots of games for all 3 systems.

I don't think theres a 'magic number'.

The most important is the console's sales momentum. It really doesn't matter if the PS3 is selling poorly, but has momentum and keeps increasing and getting stronger. This is important, because it gives developers hope that with new console addopters (at a reasonable rate), they will pick up their game.

Likewise, it's not a great decision for a software developer to put a game out on a strong user base, but failing sales-type console (think N64 and Dreamcast in their later years). Even if they have a good install base (N64), if sales are down, gamers are probably disinterested in that system, and will fail to purchase alot of games for that system. Look at the PS2 in Japan. It does have a few great-selling games, but losses to the DS by about 3:1 YTD in terms of sales. This is important, because the PS2 not only has the higher install base, but the higher software attach ratio, and is still selling ~15,000 units a week.

Well, why dont we calculate bottom up?

What does a game like MGS4 cost to produce? How much does Konami make per game? Then estimate the probable attach rate for the game to a system (conservative: 10%). Finally, check the break even point and you have the necessary install base.

Example: Cost: 40 mUSD; Earning per copy sold: 40 USD; Attach Rate: 10%

40 mUSD = 40*10%*x
x = 10 million PS3

You can refine that stuff with all kinds of things like wanted profit margins and so on.

They probably want it to be at least seven million but ten million would be better and anything above that would be excellent

 MGS4 is being released on 25/01/2008 (01/25/2008 in america) so why you think it will be mid 2008 is beyond me. 

And are you suggesting that by mid 2008 the ps3 sales will be at 5.5-7m, because your predictions are completely rediculous. the ps3 will be between 7-8m by the end of the year. 

Also i think an install base of 7m FOR A GAME LIKE MGS4 wont effect the lifetime sales of this game. Why? because only hardcore fans have bought a ps3 at that price, and the hardcore fans buy a ps3 for games like MGS4. so i expect about 40% attach rate, which means sales of 3-3.5m in the end.