Well, why dont we calculate bottom up?
What does a game like MGS4 cost to produce? How much does Konami make per game? Then estimate the probable attach rate for the game to a system (conservative: 10%). Finally, check the break even point and you have the necessary install base.
Example: Cost: 40 mUSD; Earning per copy sold: 40 USD; Attach Rate: 10%
40 mUSD = 40*10%*x
x = 10 million PS3
You can refine that stuff with all kinds of things like wanted profit margins and so on.
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