I agree and disagree. 2009 will define the PS3 as 3rd years typically are the peak for consoles. And while there are some excellent games coming out in '09 they are the wrong type of games.

The reason the PS3 is no PS2 sales-wise isn't because it's lacking in exciting racers and action games, that was true somewhat going into '08 but not now going into '09 - there's great games now, it's because it's lacking everything else.

People who want those types of games largely have already gotten a PS3 or 360. GoW and GT5 will definately cause a boost to hardware but it'll be the same boost that PS3 got from MSG4 and other great games this year - shortlived. GT5 would be a great boon in Europe but PS3 already sales well there. The only game that might make a substained improvement in sales is FFXIII in Japan and to a lesser extent elsewhere. But if 360 and Wii continue to get the bulk of JRPG games announced for their system between now and then, I just don't know how many JRPG fans will buy PS3 for just FFXIII.

PS2 sold so well because it had games for everyone, kids, girls, casuals. None of these games will do a damn thing to win any of that audience back to Sony. And without them the PS3 remains locked in a blood bath with the 360 for a distant second. Price is another major factor. It can't continue to be $200 more than the lowend 360 and hope to win.

I cant believe this I demand an explanation

 great analysis my friend!

both consoles will cut price next year, the ps3 should around march, and the 360 around october for its yearly cut (though this may just be elimination of the arcade sku, and larger hds for the pro and elite).

I do not for see any major changes next year. the ps3 should lead sales from its price drop until the 360 price drop. stopming the 360 into the ground when gt5 comes out, that games boost and tail will be very important. the 360 will beat the ps3 after its cut, and depending on hype for halo 3 recon, make a much longer and more impressive run (recon and the price cut should be close)

I expect after the price cut for the ps3 next year, and at minimum after gt5 for the ps3 to lead in others. I do not expect any radical changes in japan (a bump in favor of each when big games come out), which will be a close race until ff13 is out, when ps3 will curb stomp the 360 for a few months.

america is key for the ps3 to become number 2, and if it does not make major gains next year it will be very very hard for it to be number 2. I think the key may be Madden sales next year, that will tell very well which way all the consoles are heading. GT should help the ps3 in the states, killzone will be good, but because of prior games in the series, and similar games sales on the ps3 i do not think its a gears/halo style seller. its release date however should help its sales, with upwards of 1 million being out in one week if its out in all three territories

the PS3 in 2009 will definitely define where it stands for this gen. also nice thread.

Yes those Madden sales are telling aren't they. 

I agree with you on Killzone sales, as I just don't see anything on the PS3 selling anything like Halo or Gears or even Fable 2 early on. With Sony's financial situation their kinda at the short end of the pendulum, as it takes money to market exclusive and do the research and development to swing the market the other way.

The pricecut would have to move PS3 to Wii like sales proportions, or the 360 would have to just stop selling, witch I highly doubt will happen in the next couple of years.

cheers

Can't wait for White Knight Chronicles, Killzone 2, and InFamous. Those are the main 3 exclusives I have my eyes on for 09 so far.

Weren't people saying,around this time last year, that 2008 was the "year of the PS3"

well it came, its here and its leaving and i still don't see how this was the year of the PS3. It seems like to me that people are still holding hope that the PS3 will become something more than a flop compared to the success the PS2 had and is arguably still having.

sure the PS3 will have a hit here and there but i think we have to get out of the mantra that the PS3 can be anything more than second place this gen. Sales stats show it will probably end up in last or a close second. lets get over this and enjoy video games. who cares what console its on?


-- and ways i think i ranted. my two cents
haha

All good games I will have see Heavy Rain reviews before I buy.