There was one key difference between the way Microsoft and Nintendo presented their E3 press conferences and Sony: Sony had something to prove. Microsoft and Nintendo, however, are currently guiding the next-generation gaming. Consequently, it's a little harder to poke holes in what the two are doing.

Xbox 360, The Easy Win?

Skipping over the obvious -- Xbox 360 is outselling PS3, Sony has catching up to do -- the best way to understand how well Xbox 360 is doing is to look towards the past. In this case, Xbox, a platform that had everything to prove. "Stick to producing operating systems," they said -- and then everyone played Halo. Xbox didn't light the world on fire (like PlayStation 2), but the machine's undeniable momentum should have helped its successor perform worlds better than it did, right? Right?

Sales data on each machine at the same point in their respective lifespans isn't clear on whether that's true.

Xbox 360 Month-to-Month Sales

 

January*: 294,000, or 58,800 per week

February: 228,000, or 57,000 per week

March*: 199,000, or 39,800 per week

April: 174,000, or 43,500 per week

May: 155,900, or 38,975 per week

June*: 198,400, or 39,680 per week

 

Xbox Month-to-Month Sales

 

January 2003*: 166,328, or 33,265 per week

February 2003: 197,000, or 49,250 per week

March 2003*: 164,780, or 32,956 per week

April 2003: 128,000, or 32,000 per week

May 2003: 123,614, or 30, 903 per week

June 2003*: 166,879, or 33,375 per week

[Why the *? The January, March and June numbers reflect a five-week total. At the end of each quarter, the numbers reflect a five-week tally (i.e. March 4 through April 7 for the March 2007 totals). Additionally, this January was also five weeks, as a result of the calendar leap year, says the NPD Group. Xbox numbers courtesy of vgcharts.com]

That's a lot of numbers. What's it all mean? Xbox 360 is more or less tracking at the same pace as Xbox 1, albeit with higher month-to-month sales. More importantly, the sales dips are roughly the same, suggesting Xbox 360's weakened week-to-week sales, despite falling almost every month, are more reflective of the industry's seasonal traditions, rather than a weakened acceptance of Xbox 360. On the other hand, that isn't happening with Wii, and furthermore, Xbox 1 was a brand-new console from an unproven manufacturer and was operating on word-of-mouth traction of Halo, a game that wasn't heralded as the savior of gaming media entertainment -- as was the case with Halo 2, as will be the case with Halo 3.

Given that Xbox 360 launched a full year ahead of PlayStation 3 and Wii, why aren't more latching on? Before the competition arrived, blaming the higher price points and consumers waiting for all their next-generation choices was commonly noted. Now, we've had all the machines on the market for more than six months, yet Xbox 360 still isn't finding itself as a breakaway platform. Wii might not have the overall sales as Xbox 360, but at its current sales pace, it will easily best Microsoft. Microsoft and Sony are in the same graphics-centric gaming methodology, and current sales trends suggest it might not be the right one -- if they want to claim the first place prize, that is.

That said, does it matter? Right now, Sony's fumbles with PS3 means competition has been a non-issue for Microsoft. Of course, that doesn't explain away all the problems they've caused themselves -- hello, Red Ring of Death. In an E3 interview with Shane Kim, 1UP asked whether the head of Microsoft Game Studios was worried about the release of Halo 3, Mass Effect and other AAA Xbox 360 releases causing a spur of red rings? He said no.

"Well, there's no fear. There's an acknowledgment there's going to be some issues, we know this. That's why we did step up and say anybody who has these issues, we're going to take care of these problems. We have apologized, we feel very badly about this. We've apologized to customers to this and taken a billion dollar charge to the company, and we know people that some people are going to run into these problems, whether it's Halo 3 or whatever, and we're working hard to fix those issues that we know about in the hardware, but people are going to run into these issues and we're going to take care of it as fast as we possibly can at no cost to the consumer."

Extended warranty or not, Microsoft did not enforce a recall of the hardware, which means borked Xbox 360s are still on shelves, while the newly manufactured consoles receive the whispered about internal modifications and newly manufactured machines are fixed from the get go. System moving games like Halo 3 will put pieces of questionable hardware into more consumer hands and more consumers will almost inevitably experience a red ring that will take them out of the game for several weeks. Will September 25th's impact be diminished by a rash of upset gamers who can't "Finish the Fight?"

Maybe Peter Moore chose the right time to bail out. Still, you can't really argue with a lineup that includes Halo 3, Mass Effect (if it makes 2007), BioShock, Blue Dragon and an episodically-enhanced Grand Theft Auto IV -- no one can argue Xbox 360 will have its best holiday yet. If rumors of a price drop come true, Sony will really need to ratchet things up in 2008. $399 or bust! Additionally, a potential SKU reshuffling could place the Xbox 360 Core SKU at $249, right in line with Wii. Nintendo would have no reason to drop their price -- it's selling too hot -- but at that point, the gauntlet to the mainstream is thrown.

Will they bite?