How the hell do you know?

So you are connecting assumptions with "just wait untill..."

let's see if I can handle it:

"The Xbox360 will dominate, because of the casual appeal of "Lips" "You are in the movies" and "Scene it²". Casual games combined with the new Xbox experience will be a great success. Furthermore the "Xbox360 slim" coming in 5 different colours will become as trendy as the iPod or the PS2 was.

Hardcore gamers will be satisfied with Alan Wake, Halo Wars, and a new blockbuster game made by Rare. Forza 3 will sell 5 million units and redefine the racing genre."

So this is way of argumentation you chose. You see the bullshit in it? We just don't know yet.

I'm very good, thanks!

I'll take a guess.

360: Should be around 25 million December 31st 2008. That means it's average sales are well below 10 million per year, including very major software releases like Halo 3 and GTA IV. I think it's safe to assume that there won't be anything bigger to release on the 360 than these two. Sure Gears 2 is big, but it has its fanbase already on 360.
I think the 360 will have a lifetime of 6 years, which means it will have 3 more years. The 360 is now really at mass market price, but doesn't seem to make massive Year over Year gains. The peak of console sales is usually in the 2nd and 3rd year, which would mean 360 will slowly decline from now on. 40 million should be doable though, it has to sell 15 million in the next 3 years, which I see happening. 360 should be able to sell 7 million in 2009, 5 million in 2010 and 3 in 2011 and it made it. Well beyond 40 million is impossible in my opinion though.

PS3: PS3 should be little under 20 million December 31st 2008. It's yearly average is therefore around 10 million, with a lot of important software releases already out, but GT5 and FF13 still to be released (I know FF13 is not exclusive, but I do consider it to do more for PS3, especially due to Japanese (timed) exclusivity). Also PS3 has yet to see its third year, which as said before is usually the peak for consoles. It can therefore be expected that Sony will be able to sell at least 10 million PS3's in 2009. It should also be able to drop the price somewhere in 2009. With PS3 at 30 million end 2009 it should definitely reach 40 million, my guesstimate would be first half 2011. After that it will really depend on market saturation and Microsofts next-gen plans. I think in the end Sony has to compete with MS for the next gen market and therefore has no option for a 10 year PS3 plan and therefore will probably not reach 50 million.

So I see 40 million as a top for 360 and a base for PS3, but in the end I think they'll both end up within a few million units difference.

The weekly sales currently charted are those related to the week before EU LBP launch, while always in EU, during it, Fallout 3 and Fable 2 did quite good, so it's perfectly normal that XB360 numbers are both higher than PS3 and high as absolute value and PS3 ones are lower.
To have a clearer picture we'll have to wait, first last week USA and Japan sales, then this week EU sales (we'll know next week), so we'll know LBP effects, just like we already know price cut and big releases' effects on XB360.
I can agree that Sony is taking some risk, as it will know whether some action is needed or not quite late, but I think also that it's able to get numbers before us too.
Anyway, even with the Euro not as strong as before the crisis, EU price is still higher than what it should be converting it from $ and adding VAT, Europeans should complain about price more than Americans or Japanese.

I think there are a few things I would like to address that I have read in this thread. Perhaps for the millionth time Sony does not have discretion as to when a generation ends. A generation ends when the first of the next generation consoles arrives to market. That has always been the definition. I know the loyalists try to stretch the generation to satisfy their needs, but it is in fact a concession that a particular console cannot win. The ten year plan is irrelevant to generational ownership. So if you are saying the PS3 is going to finally defeat 360 a year after Microsoft has moved into the next generation it is entirely irrelevant. Nature is full of scavengers that linger to pick over a stripped carcass that does not mean they felled the beast.

The call for a price drop owes greatly to loyalist fears of defeat. When someone talks about the fact that Sony needs to drop the price to compete. They really are for Sony in their sentiment. They usually already own the machine so they have no technical need for the price to be reduced further. That said the odds for this happening have diminished below five percent. They would also be entirely reliant on extreme anxiety out of Sony. Once you find that level of anxiety out of Sony you also have a likely outcome of abandonment.

The economic forecast for Sony is very bleak, and the company is projecting break even, but in all likelihood the company is going to show a loss. Their primary goal is to retain profitability for the company. That means that all the belts will tighten, and Sony is well aware that they cannot find substantial backing for new debt, and they still have to address the debt they incurred to bring the PS3 to market.

That is the economic shadow that goes widely unnoticed. Sony beyond losing billions on the hardware already, and diminished returns due to title exclusivity. They have also borrowed hundreds of millions of dollars to bankroll the development and release of the console. With the obvious interest they must also pay off.

Sony has worked itself into a financial dead end with gaming. Right now they may be able to limp along at mild profitability or at a mild loss in their gaming division. However if the heads of the division ask for the keys to the treasury its likely to lead to a door slammed in their face, or worse Sony may decide to cannibalize the division in whole or part to cover losses elsewhere in the company.

Given the current position of Sony I do not think price is a war they can win. I do not think they can even contend in the war of landscape. Both Nintendo and Microsoft have massive war chests, and given the situation I think they are likely to increase the pressure on Sony, and not lessen the pressure one iota. Both are looking at penetration while Sony can only hope for sustainability, and will probably have to look at just surviving this generation.

The only real possibility I see for Sony decreasing the price of their hardware is for Sony to adopt Microsoft's economic strategy. They will need to start charging for their online service. Not only would this remove an incurred loss on the hardware. They could also bank profits towards reducing the price of the hardware. Honestly given the situation unless Sony does something along these radical lines they will not be reducing the price of hardware this year. Nor will they be reducing prices early next year. In fact the best loyalists could hope for is a price reduction next holiday season over a year away.

Great insight although don't you think that it makes more sense for Sony to keep the ps3 on the market when their next console releases?? That way they can offset R&D costs and provide a cheap console to compliment the new one.

I'm not saying that the ps3 will  have a 10 year lifespan but that Sony will likely keep it around for at least a couple of years after their next console is released.

I agree they should cut the price, but they can't. They still make a loss now, cutting the price will only make things worse.

ok there.

Why drop when you got 3 big games coming with in one month just before xmas, it would be idiotic of them to lose all that money.

LBP bundle will trash 360 sales in Europe.

"If scores would sell consoles N64 would have been the best sold system ever and Wii the worst.

Sorry, the average consumer doesn't have a clue about scores. They see two consoles with the same games and will pick the cheapest."

@BengaBenga

If the above was true, then why has the PS3 routinely been selling 20,000 to 30,000 more units per week than the 360 almost every week of this year in Others ( and even 9,000 units last week) when the 360 costs roughly half the price of the PS3?

Sony clearly stated that there will not be a price drop for a while, Sony need to pay attention to the demands of the shareholders.

I agree. For purely selfish reasons.