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Branko2166 on 05 November 2008
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BengaBenga said:
JGarret said:
Benga, how´re you doing?

Hey, see my question to NJ5, a few posts above yours?

I´d appreciate if you´d take a guess :0

I'm very good, thanks!

I'll take a guess.

360: Should be around 25 million December 31st 2008. That means it's average sales are well below 10 million per year, including very major software releases like Halo 3 and GTA IV. I think it's safe to assume that there won't be anything bigger to release on the 360 than these two. Sure Gears 2 is big, but it has its fanbase already on 360.
I think the 360 will have a lifetime of 6 years, which means it will have 3 more years. The 360 is now really at mass market price, but doesn't seem to make massive Year over Year gains. The peak of console sales is usually in the 2nd and 3rd year, which would mean 360 will slowly decline from now on. 40 million should be doable though, it has to sell 15 million in the next 3 years, which I see happening. 360 should be able to sell 7 million in 2009, 5 million in 2010 and 3 in 2011 and it made it. Well beyond 40 million is impossible in my opinion though.

PS3: PS3 should be little under 20 million December 31st 2008. It's yearly average is therefore around 10 million, with a lot of important software releases already out, but GT5 and FF13 still to be released (I know FF13 is not exclusive, but I do consider it to do more for PS3, especially due to Japanese (timed) exclusivity). Also PS3 has yet to see its third year, which as said before is usually the peak for consoles. It can therefore be expected that Sony will be able to sell at least 10 million PS3's in 2009. It should also be able to drop the price somewhere in 2009. With PS3 at 30 million end 2009 it should definitely reach 40 million, my guesstimate would be first half 2011. After that it will really depend on market saturation and Microsofts next-gen plans. I think in the end Sony has to compete with MS for the next gen market and therefore has no option for a 10 year PS3 plan and therefore will probably not reach 50 million.

So I see 40 million as a top for 360 and a base for PS3, but in the end I think they'll both end up within a few million units difference.

Great insight although don't you think that it makes more sense for Sony to keep the ps3 on the market when their next console releases?? That way they can offset R&D costs and provide a cheap console to compliment the new one.

I'm not saying that the ps3 will  have a 10 year lifespan but that Sony will likely keep it around for at least a couple of years after their next console is released.