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Forums - Sales - Who is really in the lead?

DarkNight_DS on 25 July 2007
your mother said:
Sqrl said:
misterd said:
Not Sony, of course (jab, jab) but with the new announcements of 360 and Wii sales, the Wii is just a little under 2,000,000 behind the 360.

But that doesn't count failure rates, does it? Would that be enough to put the Wii over the top?

What do you think?

If you are going by shipped numbers the Wii is 2 million behind, but I don't see the point in going by shipped number. See the only argument to going by shipped numbers is that "its the number that matters for the company" but in reality that number doesn't matter for the company nearly as much as the resulting profits so why not go by that number instead?

Ultimately the number that matters most to 3rd party developers and probably most gamers is the actual install base as it represents actual interest in the consol. And by those numbers the wii is only behind by about 600k.


Not really. As a developer I would be equally interested in attach rates.

A console with an actual install base of, say, 10m but with an attach rate of 1 would be much less attractive than a console with half that user base but with an attach rate of 4.

Edit: As a developer I could also care less about financials because as long as the install base and the attach rate makes my development costs add up, then all is well and merry for the developer!


 This is a bit misleading, if console A has an install base of 10 million and console B also has an install base of 10 million but console A has an attach rate of 1 but console B has an attach rate of 6.1, as a developer I'd have to look at the cost to manufacture games for both consoles.  If console A cost 1/6.1 the cost of making a game on console B, they equal each other out.  

As it stands, the attach rate for the Wii at this point in it's life is pretty good especially considering that it's install base keeps growing very fast.  The more people who buy your console, the lower the attach rate at first, the only time your attach rate starts climbing higher is when your sales reach a plateau.  A system with a high attach rate has signs of a slowing growth rate overall.



Prepare for termination! It is the only logical thing to do, for I am only loyal to Megatron.

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Sqrl on 25 July 2007
DarkNight_DS said:
your mother said:
Sqrl said:
misterd said:
Not Sony, of course (jab, jab) but with the new announcements of 360 and Wii sales, the Wii is just a little under 2,000,000 behind the 360.

But that doesn't count failure rates, does it? Would that be enough to put the Wii over the top?

What do you think?

If you are going by shipped numbers the Wii is 2 million behind, but I don't see the point in going by shipped number. See the only argument to going by shipped numbers is that "its the number that matters for the company" but in reality that number doesn't matter for the company nearly as much as the resulting profits so why not go by that number instead?

Ultimately the number that matters most to 3rd party developers and probably most gamers is the actual install base as it represents actual interest in the consol. And by those numbers the wii is only behind by about 600k.


Not really. As a developer I would be equally interested in attach rates.

A console with an actual install base of, say, 10m but with an attach rate of 1 would be much less attractive than a console with half that user base but with an attach rate of 4.

Edit: As a developer I could also care less about financials because as long as the install base and the attach rate makes my development costs add up, then all is well and merry for the developer!


This is a bit misleading, if console A has an install base of 10 million and console B also has an install base of 10 million but console A has an attach rate of 1 but console B has an attach rate of 6.1, as a developer I'd have to look at the cost to manufacture games for both consoles. If console A cost 1/6.1 the cost of making a game on console B, they equal each other out.

As it stands, the attach rate for the Wii at this point in it's life is pretty good especially considering that it's install base keeps growing very fast. The more people who buy your console, the lower the attach rate at first, the only time your attach rate starts climbing higher is when your sales reach a plateau. A system with a high attach rate has signs of a slowing growth rate overall.

 

I won't disagree that 3rd party developers look at cost, time, install base, attach rates, and stand price of games for a console to determine where to support.  But I was sort of giving a general responce to a genral statement.

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
wangfoo on 25 July 2007

 Misterd - look at the front page, thats where people get 600k.

 Anonymous- NPD collects data from roughly 60% of retailers. That is a ridiculously large sample size.



"Suck on it" -vgchartz mod

Sqrl on 25 July 2007
misterd said:
Sqrl said:
misterd said:
Not Sony, of course (jab, jab) but with the new announcements of 360 and Wii sales, the Wii is just a little under 2,000,000 behind the 360.

But that doesn't count failure rates, does it? Would that be enough to put the Wii over the top?

What do you think?

If you are going by shipped numbers the Wii is 2 million behind, but I don't see the point in going by shipped number. See the only argument to going by shipped numbers is that "its the number that matters for the company" but in reality that number doesn't matter for the company nearly as much as the resulting profits so why not go by that number instead?

Ultimately the number that matters most to 3rd party developers and probably most gamers is the actual install base as it represents actual interest in the consol. And by those numbers the wii is only behind by about 600k.


That's precisely what I am trying to find out. How do you get that the Wii is 600k behind? That would imply roughly 2 million busted 360s, and I didn't know anyone was leaking those numbers.


I apologise, I missed this until now...

Basically groups like NPD and VGchartz, and I think Mediacreate also take retail samples and use statistics to estimate sellthrough numbers. Now most people see this as being very innacurate and there is no doubt that it is not perfect. However statistics in general is a highly respected field of mathematics and all parties (including VGchartz) try to provide the most accurate data they possibly can and the numbers are not just pulled from thin air. One of the site admins will have to go into more detail for you if you want to specifically know how the numbers are obtained as I am unfamiliar with the exact process.

However the important point to realize is that VGChartz does this for free where as NPD requries HUGE subscription fees to get their data. There is quite a bit of work involved in gathering data and calculating the final numbers so you can be fairly sure that these guys don't do it just to make one console look good or one console look bad. There is just way to much effort involved for not that much return for that to be their motive.

 
To Each Man, Responsibility
vizunary on 25 July 2007

the ps2 is still in the lead =p



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misterd on 25 July 2007

OK, so VGC is attempting to adjust the 360 numbers for failure rates? That I wasn't aware of.

As for statistics and accuracy (for which I largely agree with Sqrl and Wangfoo)
I expect the "shipped" numbers reported by the manufacturers to be mostly accurate as far as raw totals.

I don't expect MS's numbers to include "sitting on shelves" or "shipped to replace broken hardware" numbers, which is why I was questioning their total.

With Nintendo, I've not heard of a huge failure rate with the Wii, and clearly the vast majority of what's shipped has been sold, so I think it fair to assume their "shipped" number to be very close to the "sold" number.



Sqrl on 25 July 2007

@misterd,

I am not sure if VGChartz is adjusting for failure rates or not.  I believe that info is very hush hush in MS at the moment so not sure that they really can. 
To Each Man, Responsibility
your mother on 25 July 2007
DarkNight_DS said:
your mother said:
 

Not really. As a developer I would be equally interested in attach rates.

A console with an actual install base of, say, 10m but with an attach rate of 1 would be much less attractive than a console with half that user base but with an attach rate of 4.

Edit: As a developer I could also care less about financials because as long as the install base and the attach rate makes my development costs add up, then all is well and merry for the developer!


This is a bit misleading, if console A has an install base of 10 million and console B also has an install base of 10 million but console A has an attach rate of 1 but console B has an attach rate of 6.1, as a developer I'd have to look at the cost to manufacture games for both consoles. If console A cost 1/6.1 the cost of making a game on console B, they equal each other out.

As it stands, the attach rate for the Wii at this point in it's life is pretty good especially considering that it's install base keeps growing very fast. The more people who buy your console, the lower the attach rate at first, the only time your attach rate starts climbing higher is when your sales reach a plateau. A system with a high attach rate has signs of a slowing growth rate overall.


Absolutely true. I bet there are other factors that we've overlooked, but generally, I think you, me and Sqrl are on the same page.



Sqrl on 25 July 2007
your mother said:

Absolutely true. I bet there are other factors that we've overlooked, but generally, I think you, me and Sqrl are on the same page.


Ya, I would be surprised if each game proposed did not entail at least a 30 page market analysis and performance projection well before production starts.  These guys do their homework before they put the money on the table.



To Each Man, Responsibility
Dolla Dolla on 26 July 2007
ioi said:
The numbers on the front page are "sold" - in the hands of customers. Microsoft's report numbers are shipped - "manufactured" so include items in transit, warehouses and shelves.

QFT

misterd, to make things a bit clearer if they aren't yet, I will paint the picture for you.

At the end of 2006, Microsoft said they "sold" 10.4 million consoles. Six months later they have "sold" 11.6 million consoles. That means that they would've only sold 1.2 million for 6 months, which is 200,000 a month.

Impossible.

In June, for NA alone, they sold 198k. Does that mean they only sold 2k for the whole of Japan and EU? Maybe Japan (joke!), but certainly not EU lol

VGC's numbers on the homepage count sold through numbers. They have a separate page for shipped here: http://vgchartz.com/worldcons.php



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