I'll say this as many times as it takes:

For the Wii to sell 14m by year's end, sales will have to decrease during the second half of the year.

For it to sell even 15.5m, it would have to only maintain its current rate - no stockpiling, no increased production.

Neither of those possibilities is going to occur, if you read Nintendo's report. If they only sell 15m by January, they're not shipping over 22m by April.

 Wow, I think NJ5 has hit this dead on actually.  I think Nintendo sees the intrinsic value in a publically percieved holiday victory.  The reason is that a lot of people only pay attention to the video game markets during the holidays so it is vital to look good during these periods.

 A side from that the numbers currently indicate that they are planning on selling around 6 million conoles during Q3 (Oct, Nov, Dec timeframe).  If this is the case you can expect 1m Oct, 1.5m Nov, and 3.5m Dec. This is evidenced by their recent statements that they plan to ship 16.5m during FY'08 with Q1 finished and sales for that period at ~3.5m that leaves 3.5m for Q2 and Q4 with my previously mentioned numbers for Q3.

yea Nintendo is probably going to ship 18-19 million by years end or they are gonna miss their target by quite a bit. They are targeting 22.35 million by March 08 so the chances it will sell 14 or 15 million by years end is quite slim.

Seriously, how can you people continue to put out this crap? Does anyone in their right mind really expect Nintendo to fail to meet its forecasts by something like 5 million units!? Forecasts they've just upgraded by 2.5 million units!? What are they, stupid?

Wii will outsell X360 within the month.
20million by years end way to high more like around 14-16million more reasonable.
7.5million for PS3 not a bad prediction i would put it at least 8million though.
X360 sales i would say are abit high unless Halo3 sells to more non360 owners than actual 360 owners which is probably the main reason they got a 360 for Halo3.X360 sales will be around 12-13million by years end the Wii will completely push it out the market.

As much as I love the Wii, 10 million in in just over 4 months sounds pretty hard to me.

-edit-
And I'll freely admit that my estimate can easily be wrong, I'venever been one for guessing numbers at a particular time (though that doesn't mean I can't say something sounds too high or low )

(EDIT:Twestern, How do you get 4 months?  We are 3 and a half weeks in to July, FIVE MONTHS LEFT, there are still 159 days left in the year, 43% of the year is left, and that includes the holidays where in November and December Sales usually Quadruple.)

It took a while bot the people that still don't get it are starting to poke their heads in.

If Wii were to sell 25% less each month for the rest of the year, that would leave them at 14.5 million with no increase at holiday.

If they were to keep up the trend but still no holiday increase it would be 15.3 million

If they meet their projections it will be 18.7-20. million at the end of the year, considering a million a month (current rate) through july, august, september, and october + 6 million for the holidays, 3 november, 3 for december. What is so hard about that?

6million for Christmas is possible but i doubt they will have stock pile but they might still go out of stock and that will hinder the sales.

As time goes on my sig predictions become more and more accurate.

Quite true superchunk.