LBP isn't the type of game to have a real spike.  It's sales will stem from word of mouth, and the game should have very long legs.  It will have a positive impact on the ps3's sales, but it will be rather low key initially, while lasting for a very long time.  It's that one game that realy bolsters the library in the eyes of - hell, damn near everybody, but doesn't make them go, "I need this immediately."

In other words, it's more like Wii Sports than MGS4 or Halo 3, though obviously not quite as big as any of these.

I don't expect LBP to be the game to really push the PS3. It will do well do the current user base, but it's not really a system seller. I could be wrong, but at the price tag the PS3 goes for, the economy as it is and LBP being an unknown IP, I can't see LBP pushing big PS3 system sales.

That said, I think there are more games in 2009 that will be bigger system pushers for Sony. I can't wait for January so people can finally stop talking about LBP. Its flooded this site for 6+ months now.

My point here is that LBP planet is something that Sony has that is ENTIRELY different from what Microsoft is offering. GT5, FFXVIIILM is only going to do so much to set itself apart from what Microsoft can come out with on their end.
Now sure, MGS4 is also a PS3 exclusive, but just looking at it, what does it do differently from every other game on HD consoles? Letsee, pushes realistic graphics, check, shooting at stuff, check, big cutscenes, check, etc. Now obviously there is more to it than that, but I'm talking about the guy who has not already followed Sony and MGS4 religiously and suddenly sees it in a store. those are the things that person is going to notice first, and they're going to see it everywhere else as well.

LBP is entirely different, from the very moment you look at it, or see someone else playing it, you can tell it's different from everything else on that system and all of the competitors' systems. that is the type of game that will draw in people that actually increase sales in the long run. That's what gave the Wii its success, and provided LBP is successful in this, it'll do the same for Sony.

The only issue is if it is successful or isn't. If it isn't successful, I don't think developers are going to attempt anything this creative for Sony in the future. There will be other games, sure, highly anticipated games, sure, but not the games that will drawn in NEW gamers that actually INCREASE PS3 sales rates so that they can catch up with Microsoft.

 I will guarantee you right now that neither Resistane 2 nor God of War 3 will have a big impact on the long term sales of the PS3. I would guess neither will Killzone 2 nor will Motorstorm 3 based on the past sales of the franchises. The fact that you would equate any of the games on your list to the power GT5 potentially has is laughable. Quite honestly it is likely that Little Big Planet will have a much greater effect han 80% of the games you listed for various reasons.

 @Grey
You are way over-estimating the effect one game will have on the development community as a whole. Watching another "creative" game flop won't stop others from trying to make "creative" games.Similarly you don't get new "creative" games because other "creative" games succeed. If Little Big Planet flops then it will stop other developers from trying to create a game similar to it, but not have a great impact on the overall direction of various projects. If Little Big Planet is a smash hit, then we will see it cloned by other companies in a quick grab for cash but not inspire others to try anything new because of its success.

$299 price point is,,,not LBP

LBP isn't Sony's last chance to pull ahead. The PS3 will pass the 360 in 09 and the Wii by Holiday 2010.

The question is this: Which games left? I'm not telling PS3 hasn't goog games, but... you mean Killzone? I don't remmeber another else.

Oh no, I'm not going so far as to say it's going to be THE defining factor. I'm just claiming that it will essentially be the litmus test for the survivability of creativity on the PS3 console. If it succeeds, it will set the precedent that other "creative" games can also succeed, but if it flops, then following "creative" games will also likely flop for the same reasons, such as price point too high, PS3 has been glutted with "hardcore" gamers, thus casual games won't do well, development costs too high to take the risks, etc.

If creative games can succeed on the PS3 console, then it will be able to break away from being viewed as simply the same thing as the 360, who has already stated that they are trying to break away from their hardcore image, which I frankly have not seen them do successfully. If the PS3 can break away from that, I think it will be able to surpass 360 in sales, but if it can't, then it will remain trailing.

That's just simply the way I see it. It's not that LBP will be THE deciding factor in this, but that you will be able to predict future trends based on how well this survives.

Again, I couldn't disagree with you more.  GT5 is going to increase sales probably more than any other game has for it's respective console this generation.  God of War 3 is going to increase sales more than LBP could ever hope to.  When Team ICO releases it's next game, it's going to increase sales almost more than any other game for it's console this generation.  When/If Level 5 creates the next Dark Cloud, it'll increase sales probably more than LBP could ever hope to.

You haven't read very much into what's to come for the PS3, have you?  They aren't trying to draw in NEW gamers, they're trying to draw in ANY gamers.  If some of those gamers happen to be waiting for GT5, so be it.  If some are waiting for God of War, or LBP or Team ICO, so be it.  I never saw LBP as being a title to push a ton of consoles in the first place.  It'll increase console sales, but not by a whole lot, and nowhere near as much as the above mentioned games.  You could also argue KZ2 in there, because it very well may push more consoles than LBP as well.  LBP is a game whose true brilliance may not be fully realized for up to a year after it's release, because it's not really being advertised in America.  The only ads I see for the game are on Wal-Mart security scanners by the doors and such.  No commercials, no magazine ads (besides video game mags), nothing.  And the reason I bring this up is that America is the largest market for video games..and Sony isn't really trying to push one of their biggest titles here.  Like some other people have said - the only reason I even know about this game is because I watched E3.  Aside from it, I've seen no advertising whatsoever for this game in the Americas.

Depending on people's taste: Motor Storm 2, Resistance 2, LBP, Naruto UNS, Singstar vol.2, KZ2, GoW3, GT5, FFvXIII, WKC ..well some games might come later than 2009 but its still something to look forward to.