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Forums - Sales Discussion - Records to be broken this gen?

Title says it mostly, what sales records do you guys think we'll see broken this gen? By this gen I mean Wii, Xbox 360, PS3, DS, PSP, and any possible surprises that may see release within the next year or two.

 

The one I'm most certain of, and the one that's discovery inspired me to post this, is the best selling fighting game of all time. The top three are currently:

Tekken 3 - PS - 6.91M
Super Smash Bros. Melee - GC - 6.58M
Street Fighter 2 - SNES - 6.3M

I'm totally discounting Tekken here, because number 5 only barely sold a million, and number 6 doesn't honestly look like it'll break any records. Super Smash Bros. Brawl, on the other hand, looks like it'll be the next champ of the genre. It's predecessor is still played today, has an attach rate of over 25%, and the sequel is one of the most hyped games I've ever seen. I'm obviously in a poor situation to evaluate the hype myself, being as enthusiatic about the game as I am, but surely nobody denies it's in an even better situation than Melee. Let's not forget the Gamecube sold some 22M consoles, while even the most negative predictions are saying the Wii will do twice that.

 

It goes without saying that Wii Sports is going to be the best selling game of all time if it's kept bundled long enough, and the Wii stays on the market for a few more years. Both look pretty likely to me.

 

Another one I'm fairly optimistic we'll see topped is highest attach rate for non-bundled game. I haven't done a huge amount of research on this, but at least for last gen it looks like the winner was Halo 2 with just slightly over 33%. There are a number of factors I see in favour of Halo 3 taking the cake, most importantly how the Xbox 360 has evolved into a very Haloish console with a huge focus on online and FPS games. In short it looks like Halo 3 is going to be the pinnacle of the type of gaming the Xbox 360 has pidgeon-holed itself for, and I imagine a majority of people with the console will be getting it.

 

It's also highly possible for both the Wii and DS to take the all-time hardware crown if Nintendo doesn't get greedy, and keeps them on the market for long enough. I'll leave it at that, since the topic seems to be prime flame war material. 

Anybody else feel like making a prediction, or alternatively ripping one of mine apart?



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I don't think you should count bundled games in the "Best selling game ever"-catagory, but that's just me.

Brawl will definitely brake some records and maybe be the best selling fighting game ever, but we'll have to wait and see.

But the Wii and DS to take the all-time hardware crown seems a bit unlikely, PS2 has sold about 120 million and doesn't seem to stop, so the DS has a long way to go.



Predictions for December 31st 2008:
Wii 38,000,000
DS 84,500,000
PS3 17,000,000
PSP 41,000,000
X360 23,000,000

Remember, you're not allowed to say Wii Sports is a game though...according to people on this site... o.0



LEFT4DEAD411.COM
Bet with disolitude: Left4Dead will have a higher Metacritic rating than Project Origin, 3 months after the second game's release.  (hasn't been 3 months but it looks like I won :-p )

Wii sports is definatly going to be the best selling video game. Already over 5 million sold World wide.



 

mM

5 million???

The game is over 8 million

But actual sells (not with the Wii) are around 1.9 million



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Explosivo said:
I don't think you should count bundled games in the "Best selling game ever"-catagory, but that's just me.

Brawl will definitely brake some records and maybe be the best selling fighting game ever, but we'll have to wait and see.

But the Wii and DS to take the all-time hardware crown seems a bit unlikely, PS2 has sold about 120 million and doesn't seem to stop, so the DS has a long way to go.

Well you're free to call it whatever you want. I say "All-time best seller" and "All-time best seller non-bundled", but nothing's stopping you from labeling them as "All-time best seller bundled and "All-time best seller". I chose this way mostly because that's how it's on our all-time software chart, but then again that chart is meant to demonstrate how many games got into circulation rather than weenie-measuring, and this thread is somewhat different in that respect. =/

I'm still very optimistic about the Wii's and DS's chances to top the all-time hardware chart. There is some uncertainty as to how long they'll be on the market, but other than that they're both in a much stronger position than the PS2 was when it was new. 



Explosivo said:
I don't think you should count bundled games in the "Best selling game ever"-catagory, but that's just me.

Brawl will definitely brake some records and maybe be the best selling fighting game ever, but we'll have to wait and see.

But the Wii and DS to take the all-time hardware crown seems a bit unlikely, PS2 has sold about 120 million and doesn't seem to stop, so the DS has a long way to go.

I think the current number 1 game, Super Mario Bros, was also bundled in America, so Wii Sports should count.

The only one that might be hard to get is Nintendo taking #1 in hardware, and if it does it will be with the DS. Wii might sell between 35-80 mil.



Consoles I Own: NES, SNES, N64, GC, GBA, DS, X360, Wii

Yeah Wii has the problem of not breaking very often, so people won't buy many replacements (PS, PS2)



Even if they don't beat PS2 by themselves, I think we can agree Wii + DS will have a higher combined install base than any previous home + handheld console duo.

The current record for most million-selling games from one publisher on one system is 47 from EA on PS2. Nintendo could make a run at that record with both Wii and DS. There is already 21 on DS, which should reach 25+ by year end, and 5 on Wii, which should reach 10+ by year end.

The current record for most 10-million selling games on one console is 6 on Game Boy. DS has 1 already, will have 3 within months, and has 7 games total out already which could reach the mark.

Halo 2 is the best-selling FPS of all-time... Halo 3 could catch it.

NSMB could get a record with a pair of asterisks: best selling handheld game ever *not bundled with hardware and *with a single SKU.

I seriously wonder if Nintendogs has a chance at the all-time non-bundled software crown. Its sales don't seem to have slowed down one bit outside of Japan. If that held up for another 2+ years... It could make a run at Pokemon RGB. But that one is crazy talk! (Or is it?)



"[Our former customers] are unable to find software which they WANT to play."
"The way to solve this problem lies in how to communicate what kind of games [they CAN play]."

Satoru Iwata, Nintendo President. Only slightly paraphrased.

leo-j said:
Wii sports is definatly going to be the best selling video game. Already over 5 million sold World wide.

If it continues to be bundled then yes, the Wii should reach at a minimum 60M consoles - you could maybe argue 10M less, if they continue bundling it then it will easily become the best selling game of all time even if your being pessimistic about the Wii itself.

 Overall console base will be broken this gen, like most others =P. Maybe the 200M total consoles will be broken this generation though?

Largest marketshare in any single  market in Japan maybe? I dont know really Im just making this one up =P.