Time for some profit taking!

1US = 119 yen, from 122 a few days ago.

this is the most serious risk, actually. we could see 1US=110 yen by year's end. nintendo would have to write off like 500mln if that's the case.

EDIT: i hope they hedge their currency positions. 

Hmm, I guess Sony used a $1-117 yen ratio for their forward estimates but oddly used a $1-123 ratio for their dollar calculations.

as Dow Jones plummets, and the subprime saga continues to unfold, there is a real chance the yen carry trade will really unwind for real.

the yen carry trade (borrowing in yen, buying other currencies for higher return) is extremely important. the unwinding could have some extremely serious effects--from today's news, it is entirely possible that the yen will hit 110 in a month, if not higher.

Nintendo, with huge holdings in US$, will suffer hugely as a result of a depreciating US. its exposure appears to be more so than many other japanese exporters, since as far as i know, their entire cash holding is in US$ to take advantage of the higher interest rate (hence, they are part of the carry trade).

the implications of course would be far-reaching; nintendo themselves will do fine, with increasing Wii and software sales. but its stock might suffer in the short to medium term--a correction could be on its way.

in the long term, nintendo still has lots of gas left. there could be bargains to be had if this market correction is for real.

I think you might be off on what Nintendo was using for it's forward estimates. On the bottom of Page 3 of their report, it says they are using a $1 - 118 yen ratio for their estimates.

Yeah, I don't worry too much about it. The exchange rates won't prevent Nintendo from making tons of money. It's far more important to have a solid business plan and excellent products.

i know they use 118 yen = 1 US ; the previous quarter they used 116 yen=1 US as estimate. the exchange would bring about a short term charge, dent the bottom line a little, but otherwise, like you said, the fundamentals are rock solid.

buy!

Not a great day today but it's to be expected when you have such a huge runup combined with a market crash. If Monday goes down again, it may be a good chance to acquire.

monday? oh yeah, it's friday over in japan.

Where do you view live/delayed quotes for ntdoy? All the places I see just show the final close price each day (i.e. yahoo).

Thanks