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Forums - Sales Discussion - So how exactly is the PS3 going to outsell the Xbox 360?

HappySqurriel on 22 October 2008

I think the timing of the release of the next generation of consoles can have a huge impact on things ...

Even though 5 years is a pretty standard life cycle for a non-market leading console, if Microsoft announced that they were releasing their next XBox console for Christmas 2010 it could do a lot of damage to the desireability of the XBox 360. I think that the combination of consoles selling at a higher price at a similar point in their life and the diminishing returns of more powerful processors has resulted in people expecting their consoles to have a longer life.

One of the problems all console manufacturers will face heading into the next generation is that developers will need a (very) long lead time to produce quality games for launch, while (at the same time) the earlier you announce your console to the public the more likely they will get angry about it.

 



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bigjon on 22 October 2008

when the PS3 gets within 50 dollars of the 360 it will destroy it. Notice how well PS2 games STILL sell even though there are billions of great used games for sale for dirt cheap.



End of 2009 Predictions (Set, January 1st 2009)

Wii- 72 million   3rd Year Peak, better slate of releases

360- 37 million   Should trend down slightly after 3rd year peak

PS3- 29 million  Sales should pick up next year, 3rd year peak and price cut

Squilliam on 22 October 2008
bigjon said:
when the PS3 gets within 50 dollars of the 360 it will destroy it. Notice how well PS2 games STILL sell even though there are billions of great used games for sale for dirt cheap.

A PS3 has Wireless, Blu Ray, Blu Tooth, XDR ram and a mandatory HDD.

An Xbox 360 Arcade is cheap as chips to manufacture in comparison.

Btw the PS3 was within $50 of the Xbox 360, but its certainly not going to touch the price of the Arcade SKU any time in the next 2 years, or get within $50.

 



Tease.

HALOOOOOOOO on 22 October 2008
bigjon said:
when the PS3 gets within 50 dollars of the 360 it will destroy it. Notice how well PS2 games STILL sell even though there are billions of great used games for sale for dirt cheap.

That will happen in mid-2010 at best, and the 360 will have pulled away by then.



kitler53 on 22 October 2008
Squilliam said:
kitler53 said:

because 6 previous generations of experience say so.

gen 6 graph over 5 years: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=GC®1=All&cons2=PS2®2=All&cons3=XB®3=All&weeks=312&weekly=1

gen 5 over 5 years: http://vgchartz.com/hwlaunch.php?cons1=N64®1=All&cons2=PS®2=All&cons3=®3=------&weeks=312&weekly=1

the generation losers: peak sales around year 3, sales stop by end of year 5.

the generation winner: peak sales in year 3-4, sales maintain much longer than year 5.

the 360 is finishing up year 3 - expect a year over year drop next year and a near hault in sales the following year.

the ps3 is finishing up year 2 - expect a year over year increase next year and then a drop the following year.

Why would the Xbox 360 peak whilst the PS3 is not? They are essentially the same machines if you look at it from a game playing perspective. If they are going to peak, then they will both have their peak year in 2009 and then decline. The software sales/hardware sales of the Xbox 360 indicate a system which is still yet to peak, the majority of software/hardware sales have occoured in the last 24 months.

 

listen, everstar you too, i could list of dozens of reasons why gen 6 was unlike gen 5 was unlike gen 4 is different from the current gen.  and despite all these differences every generation follows the same sales pattern, a basic bell curve with a peak around year 3 with the market leader experienceing kurtosis favoring post peak years.

i like my 360 as the next guy but seperate your emotion from the facts: the ps3 will eventually outsell the 360.  how about you just take solace in this: if sony can fall and nintedo rise this much between generations there is no reason to believe MS couldn't be market leader next gen with the right innovations and marketing.

 



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blazinhead89 on 22 October 2008

299 Euro, Thats the Next step



c0rd on 22 October 2008

I'm not sure I agree with the peak @ year 3 / dead at year 5 pattern applying to the 360. Consider the situation - the PS3 & 360 are receiving equal support. Their exclusives pretty much nullify any differences out. The third party support is overwhelming considering they're "losing consoles". So much so, that it's really hard to imagine the 360 dead 2 years from now. This wasn't at all the case for the N64 / GC / Xbox (I think). Compare the Wii's software since launch to the HD consoles - has the console leader ever been so close to the "losers" before?

I can see the PS3 winning over the long haul, if the Others market keeps it selling long enough to edge it out. It's a tough call either way.



kitler53 on 22 October 2008
c0rd said:

I'm not sure I agree with the peak @ year 3 / dead at year 5 pattern applying to the 360. Consider the situation - the PS3 & 360 are receiving equal support. Their exclusives pretty much nullify any differences out. The third party support is overwhelming considering they're "losing consoles". So much so, that it's really hard to imagine the 360 dead 2 years from now. This wasn't at all the case for the N64 / GC / Xbox (I think). Compare the Wii's software since launch to the HD consoles - has the console leader ever been so close to the "losers" before?

I can see the PS3 winning over the long haul, if the Others market keeps it selling long enough to edge it out. It's a tough call either way.

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=XB&publisher=&sort=Total

there is a difference between a dead console, and a console that's not selling anymore.

sure, the 360/ps3 combo will keep getting games but...the 360 already has overwhelming third party support, the 360 already has it's heavy hitters out (halo, fable, GTA, madden), the 360 is already very cheap.

so if sales are low now what is MS bringing to the 360 next year that convince someone they ought to buy a 360 when they are not convience now?

 



TowlieIsABeast on 22 October 2008

The PS3 will pass 360 after the new xbox is announced/released.  It should be at least announced by 2010.



mrstickball on 22 October 2008
kitler53 said:

http://vgchartz.com/worldtotals.php?name=&console=XB&publisher=&sort=Total

there is a difference between a dead console, and a console that's not selling anymore.

sure, the 360/ps3 combo will keep getting games but...the 360 already has overwhelming third party support, the 360 already has it's heavy hitters out (halo, fable, GTA, madden), the 360 is already very cheap.

so if sales are low now what is MS bringing to the 360 next year that convince someone they ought to buy a 360 when they are not convience now?

 

Mind using the same logic for the Playstation 3? It is unlikely to pick up any more major 3rd party support, and by the time it drops it's price, the Wii/X360 will have sold tens of millions more consoles, drying up the potential base that demands a $200-300 PS3 by a decent margin.

For every big Playstation 3 title coming out in 09, I am sure any X360 fan can name a similar-selling title. Sony fans used the same deadpan logic for 2008 releases - That games such as GTAIV, MGS4, and Resistance 2 were going to bludegon whatever the X360 had in '08 since MS threw everything they had into the 07 catalogue. And we know how 08 has shaped up.

 



Back from the dead, I'm afraid.