This generation is up to 70 Million consoles sold as of today between the Xbox 360/PS3/Wii. Since we can pretty much assume that current trends will continue from here until perhaps the earliest realistic date for a PS3 price cut - March 1st. If 20 million consoles were sold last year in this period, then 25 million makes a good estimate for this year assuming the financial crisis makes a big dent. This brings us up to a total of 95 million sold. 

The last generation *if we exclude continued PS2 sales* finished at about 140 million console sales in total. So even if the total sales for this gen were to increase to 200 million its still about halfway done at this point in terms of total sales. At the moment its pretty much a given that the Wii will take 50% of the remaining sales at least. So that leaves 50 million to split between the PS3/360, 25 million each at a 50/50 split. To draw level with the Xbox 360 it would require a 27% sales advantage over the Xbox 360, but taking in the current sales ratios it would require a 47% sales swing just to tie. Thats 50 million split 22 million for Xbox 360 and 28 million for PS3.

Thats just to tie, to actually perform anything meaningful a price cut would have to most likely increase sales by over 60% to actually give the PS3 a decent margin over the Xbox 360 and that would require a significant price cut to achieve.

So without mentioning game exclusives unless they have are ensured to sell 4 million + copies or an immediate $100 price slash towards the end of Q1 or the start of Q2 how exactly could the PS3 reverse an assumed win Q4/Q1 2009 for the Xbox 360 and come out with a victory in 2 and a half years or less?

$199 PS3 will destroy the 360. But, i doubt it will happen anytime soon. This Gen is done as far as NUMBERS are concern. The wii won. Who cares who finish second.

If we're talking LTD sales when everything is said and done, the question comes up of who will last longer.

It's assumed the Playstation 3 will be, so then we need to ask the question "Could the PS3 bridge the 5 million unit gap in that period of time?"

The PS3 still has the window to beat the X360 out. But it's closing the longer Sony takes on dropping the price. There are only 2 titles that can move hardware on the PS3 (GT5 and FFXIII), but outside of that, it's going to take Sony slashing prices to have a shot at beating the X360.

*sniff* I care who comes in second.

And what will the X360 be when the PS3 is at $199?

$79?

$99?

Unfortunately, with the boondoggle that Sony has designed the PS3 to be, it's unlikely that the cost of the PS3 will drop to $199 before 2010, if not 2011. By then, how are consumers going to give a care about the Playstation 3? The X360 will be cheaper, and the Wii better known.

Ugh, Sony need to lower the price but they cant. They should have thought before making the PS3 so expensive in the first place

I just dont see sony beating Microsoft this time around

why?

Everyone should have come to that realilisation 2 and 1/2 years ago when Sony announced the price.

You can't build a system, pack it with almost entirely proprietary technology, and expect the cost to drop quickly...If your the only one making the parts (and the systems aren't selling), you aren't going to reduce the costs as quickly as a competitor that uses industry-standard technology. The Blu-Ray was a smart move. The Cell + everything else was not.

When no one makes games for the Playstation 4, you'll understand. Ever looked at the atrocious lineup of 3rd party games on the Wii? That speaks volumes about how 3rd parties will treat your system if you don't do well.