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Forums - Nintendo - Wii will not make 50% marketshare this year :(

jlauro on 21 October 2008

I wouldn't put it as impossible jsut yet. That said, I do agree it's increasingly unlikely.

Given that demand for the wii has already decreased in Japan and Others, and soon after Christmas, supply will likely catch up with demand in America, I don't think it will ever happen.

Of course Nintendo can always add colors and do a price drop, and so if they really wanted to go after market share they could do it. That said, I think they would prefer to stretch out the life of the wii with higher profits for as many years as they can instead of going after market share.



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Mr.Y on 21 October 2008

You ever notice this site doesn't even track the Vii?

Clearly this site is ran by fanboys.



deathgod33 on 21 October 2008

actually it still sells more than ps3/360 combined.



 

 

 

 

Magera on 21 October 2008

Well for Wii to reach 50% Market Share this year it will need to sell a little over 3.9 Million Units More then the 360 and PS3 Combined over Christmas.

Will it happen - Nope I don't think so.

Could it happen - If That 50% more supply then last year is for WW then No it still wont happen. last year the HD's sold 7.7 Million, even with 50% increase the Wii will only sell 10.5 Million.

10.5 - 7.7 = 2.8 Million gain. So they would still be at minium, 1.1 million short of 50%... However I think the HD's will sell more along the lines of 8.5 - 9 million consoles thus leaving a gap of 1.9 - 2.4 Million.



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SaviorX on 21 October 2008

I said 50% marketshare would come around by the end of the next fiscal year. Coincidentally, a few weeks after The Conduit's release.



Leatherhat on July 6th, 2012 3pm. Vita sales:"3 mil for COD 2 mil for AC. Maybe more. "  thehusbo on July 6th, 2012 5pm. Vita sales:"5 mil for COD 2.2 mil for AC."

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Valkyria00 on 21 October 2008

Its never gonna happen and I never expected it too either.



Millennium on 21 October 2008

It probably won't hit 50%, no, but it will continue to climb. Wii sales seem to have stabilized at just over 50% of the market each week, and so the total share of the installed base will climb until it matches that figure, but it's already so close that the last couple of percentage points will be slow in coming.



Complexity is not depth. Machismo is not maturity. Obsession is not dedication. Tedium is not challenge. Support gaming: support the Wii.

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What do I hate about modern gaming? I hate tedium replacing challenge, complexity replacing depth, and domination replacing entertainment. I hate the outsourcing of mechanics to physics textbooks, art direction to photocopiers, and story to cheap Hollywood screenwriters. I hate the confusion of obsession with dedication, style with substance, new with gimmicky, old with obsolete, new with evolutionary, and old with time-tested.
There is much to hate about modern gaming. That is why I support the Wii.

Lolcislaw on 21 October 2008

50% is inevitable it will happen eventually next year, this holidays Wii will dominate, we'll see how it goes.



astrosmash on 21 October 2008
superchunk said:
astrosmash said:
superchunk said:

With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.

 

 

Nintendo says 51mil shipped to retail by March 31. Do the math backwards from there and you will see supply will not constrain them to 42 mil by December 31.

 

Without rushing January shipments, they should get about 43.5 million to retail by December 31; if they rush January shipments like last year 46 million to retail by December 31 should be possible.

That was my original logic all year long when I kept saying 45-50m by year's end. However, now that we are so close and I run the real numbers and plausible % increases from last year, I just don't see how its possible.

Granted I won't be sad if I'm wrong but I don't see Nintendo selling more than 43m by January.

Then if they would need to sale an average of 3m through March to make their 51m target. So, you argument is still very valid.

 

I was not being a critic of your yoy sales numbers - I think you are quite right that for them to sell that many units would require an absurd increase. However, you did mention in the part of your original post that I quoted that you weren't sure if the supply ww was going to be enough. My point was that regardless of whether the demand exists, there should be enough supply to reach 44mil to 46 mil.

 



ctk495 on 21 October 2008

That sucks for the wii.