Wii will not make 50% marketshare this year :(

[astrosmash]

superchunk said:

astrosmash said:

superchunk said:

With that I would peg Wii at around 42m by years end. Throughout this year I have pegged it at 45m, so it is now a little lower than my expectations, however, IF I was wrong and the 50% increase is actually WW not just NA it will definitely be over 45m.

 

 

Nintendo says 51mil shipped to retail by March 31. Do the math backwards from there and you will see supply will not constrain them to 42 mil by December 31.

 

Without rushing January shipments, they should get about 43.5 million to retail by December 31; if they rush January shipments like last year 46 million to retail by December 31 should be possible.

That was my original logic all year long when I kept saying 45-50m by year's end. However, now that we are so close and I run the real numbers and plausible % increases from last year, I just don't see how its possible.

Granted I won't be sad if I'm wrong but I don't see Nintendo selling more than 43m by January.

Then if they would need to sale an average of 3m through March to make their 51m target. So, you argument is still very valid.

 

I was not being a critic of your yoy sales numbers - I think you are quite right that for them to sell that many units would require an absurd increase. However, you did mention in the part of your original post that I quoted that you weren't sure if the supply ww was going to be enough. My point was that regardless of whether the demand exists, there should be enough supply to reach 44mil to 46 mil.