I think ur estimates might be a bit too low ... For a AAA title, publishers ship them at $49.99 since retailers know it will drive traffic.  This would be the Halo 3, Grand Theft Auto IV, Metal Gear Solid 4 games.  On average games generally get sold to retailers at 70-75% of the MSRP which would be around $42 - $47 for a $59.99 game.  Retailers generally have the option to return some level of the inventory purchased if the game does not sell well.

So for a game like MGS4 we should be looking at $165 Million + a lower royalty rate from Sony + free marketing from Sony + gauranteed bundle sales = very very profitable

For Infinite Undiscovery we should be looking at $11 Million in sales + a lower royalty rate for MSFT + free marketing from MSFT = mostly likely broke even to profitable

For the rest, it is probably a bit harder to discern as I would not see why Sony or Microsoft would pay extra for exclusivity.  Metal Gear Solid is easy to see why and Infinite Discovery had to have been bought for even Square to consider an exclusive XBox 360 release.

Don't forget you also have to include things like marketing, online/ongoing support and other costs. In some cases these costs can be as much as the development budget.

NEVER!!

but MGS4 has made more money from other stuff too. Toys, LE game(I have mine), soundtrack,LE game guide, game gude, publicity from apple, regain, and more stuff. sells of the others MGS games, Metal Gear Online, and more.

It's not just about making profit, but companies need to maximize the earning potential of their product. For example, just making a profit on GTAIV would be an enormous failure for T2. A product like GTAIV has to make a boatload of profit or the company will tank.

As Developement cost for many HD games are speculated to be around the $30 Million mark, therefore it's likely all those games made a loss,

As far as MGS4 costs, they were aluded to be in the range of $100 Million, so even this one may have done poorly

All these results have been reflect in the annual losses reported by those publishers that mainly produce HD games

msg4 yes, but not a huge amount but enough to make another mgs5.

I might be wrong, but wouldn't Sony have lost their side of the cut of bundled MGS4 games rather than Konami, because its Sony that benefits from the bundling, not Konami. I mean its not like people think 'Ah see I'm not sure if $89 is worth it for MGS4, but oh look I can spend $749 for MGS4 AND a ps3, now thats much better value'.

Secondly you say a large portion of their sales are bundled, but given that it sold 3.31 million thus far since June, and Sony has sold 2.7 million ps3's, and the awesome 80GB bundle was not on sale in Others, where the bulk of MGS4 sales were, I think saying a 'large portion' is probably stretching the truth a little. Even with the awesome 80gb bundle in the US, NPD showed first money individual game sales outsold the bundle over 3:1. Otherwise you are saying that no ps3 owners in Japan or America who owned a Ps3 beforehand has bought MSG4. Unless their was some bundle where you got a PS3 and two MGS4 games..

 As to whether it made a profit, I'd say yes even given its large budget. Konami said it had sold 3.97 million in August, and although that was to retailer, its the retailers that buy the game off Konami, so as far as Konami are concerned they are looking at over 4 million sales already.

As for other games;

Infinite undiscovery - No

 Ace Combat - Probably break even

 Tales of Vesperia - Probably not, maybe near break even

Eternal Sonata - See above

Beautiful Katamari - see above

Haze - No (remember it has been in development for a loooong time, which costs a lot)

 Blue Dragon - Break even

Time crisis 4 -  small profit

Too human - BIG no

Isn't Time Crisis 4 just a port of the arcade game?

INFINITE UNDISCOVERY IS MICROSOFT'S OWN IP DAMMIT SAYING IT WAS BOUGHT AAAAAAAAAAARGH.

Can people get it into their heads already that IU was owned by Microsoft from the very beginning, before Square were even in the picture? God.