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Forums - Nintendo - Prediction: Wii will hit 17-18 million consoles sold by year's end

Smash_Brother on 01 August 2007
Desroko said:

This one's my favorite.

Yes, and I bothered to take a look at the numbers after that and I came up with this:

"I'm looking the numbers over and I think they could do 14-15, but that's about it.

The Wii worldwide weekly totals are always ~250k units sold, that gives us about 1 mil per month, but there's only 5 months left in the year and that, added to the current 9.5 mil, only gives us 14.5 mil.

Unless Nintendo is stockpiling (which makes no sense to me as they'll be missing out on potential sales of excellent games like Mario Strikers and Metroid Prime 3 because these games will be long forgotten by the time xmas with SSBB and Mario Galaxy rolls around), then 15 mil is probably what we can expect to see right now."

I'll readily admit I was being lazy when I first posted, largely due to having spent a while hunting down Wiis for friends, family and a girlfriend, but after I took a look at the numbers, I can confidently say that, unless Nintendo DOES increase supply, they won't make 17 mil, but that's based upon current sales trends.

I'd prefer it if they overshot and reached 20 million units sold by the end of the year, nearly doubling what MS will have sold by then, but I'm just not that optimistic when they still seem to be having manufacturing difficulties and problems meeting demand.



"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks

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Desroko on 01 August 2007

I'm tempted to just let this lie, but with all respect, can't you see how rude it is to deride others for "moonlighting as analysts" and "getting into pissing matches" when you readily admit that you have done the same thing, and that your own efforts were shoddy?



Smash_Brother on 01 August 2007
Desroko said:
I'm tempted to just let this lie, but with all respect, can't you see how rude it is to deride others for "moonlighting as analysts" and "getting into pissing matches" when you readily admit that you have done the same thing, and that your own efforts were shoddy?

That's true.

What sparked me off in this case was that sqrl fired at me sarcastically.

Rather than fire back, I should have just listed the numbers and made my case, as is how I'd usually do it.

You haven't exactly been the most diplomatic yourself, though. It's actually pretty easy to change my mind, so long as it's done politely, hence why I was more willing to antagonize after the first reply to my original post. 



"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks

outlawauron on 01 August 2007
Soriku said:
outlawauron said:
Soriku said:
JouninGarret said:
Calm down there,no need to get agressive,I´m just curious.


Hmmm, thats funny. KH isn't annouced for Wii; the next KH game IS going to be for PSP or DS.

Link: http://www.kingdomhearts3.net/tetsuya-nomura-interviewed/ 


DQ: Swords is on the Wii. Thats one.
And the Tales game coming to Wii is the sequel of the GCN version.


 

We knew the next one won't be "3" and KH isn't announced for Wii...yet.

Well, It won't be mentioned till at least 08 or 09. Nomura, lead on KH, is the lead designer on FF Versus XIII. This game is slated for late 08 early 09. So, KH 3 will be on a wait.



"We'll toss the dice however they fall,
And snuggle the girls be they short or tall,
Then follow young Mat whenever he calls,
To dance with Jak o' the Shadows."

Check out MyAnimeList and my Game Collection. Owner of the 5 millionth post.

Desroko on 01 August 2007
Smash_Brother said:
Desroko said:
I'm tempted to just let this lie, but with all respect, can't you see how rude it is to deride others for "moonlighting as analysts" and "getting into pissing matches" when you readily admit that you have done the same thing, and that your own efforts were shoddy?

That's true.

What sparked me off in this case was that sqrl fired at me sarcastically.

Rather than fire back, I should have just listed the numbers and made my case, as is how I'd usually do it.

You haven't exactly been the most diplomatic yourself, though. It's actually pretty easy to change my mind, so long as it's done politely, hence why I was more willing to antagonize after the first reply to my original post. 


Well, that's true too. I think we can forget this.



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Smash_Brother on 01 August 2007

Yeah, no hard feelings. I have to not get carried away like this...

Sorry.



"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks

WiteoutKing on 01 August 2007

Wow.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Desroko on 01 August 2007
WiteoutKing said:
Wow.

You talkin to me? You want a piece of this too?



Smash_Brother on 01 August 2007
WiteoutKing said:
Wow.

Desroko and I are cool now.

You want a piece of US?

Seriously, though, I just got some new information...

Nintendo COULD be stockpiling, as I just learned from a GS employee that Wii shipments will show up at the EXACT same time as key game releases.

So I take it back: they could very well make the 18 mil number, since they apparently ARE stockpiling for games like MP3, SMG and SSBB (probably a lot for the last one).

EDIT: In fact, this same GS employee has been working retail for 7 years and from her observations, she points out that, when a product is hard to find, it stays hot. When you can get one on any store anywhere, demand cools off.

It's as though if you keep the supply just BARELY under the demand, more demand spawns from nowhere, and she cites examples of little kids badgering their parents, like saying, "Billy has a ____! I want one too!" simply because it's hard to get and having one is a status symbol.

So I take it ALL back: it looks like Nintendo could be fixing the market to ensure that the Wii hype remains high. In fact, remember how I said that Nintendo told us that Wiis would be hard to find this xmas as well? Yeah, keeping the hype high. 



"I mean, c'mon, Viva Pinata, a game with massive marketing, didn't sell worth a damn to the "sophisticated" 360 audience, despite near-universal praise--is that a sign that 360 owners are a bunch of casual ignoramuses that can't get their heads around a 'gardening' sim? Of course not. So let's please stop trying to micro-analyze one game out of hundreds and using it as the poster child for why good, non-1st party, games can't sell on Wii. (Everyone frequenting this site knows this is nonsense, and yet some of you just can't let it go because it's the only scab you have left to pick at after all your other "Wii will phail1!!1" straw men arguments have been put to the torch.)" - exindguy on Boom Blocks

Desroko on 01 August 2007
Smash_Brother said:
WiteoutKing said:
Wow.

Desroko and I are cool now.

You want a piece of US?

Seriously, though, I just got some new information...

Nintendo COULD be stockpiling, as I just learned from a GS employee that Wii shipments will show up at the EXACT same time as key game releases.

So I take it back: they could very well make the 18 mil number, since they apparently ARE stockpiling for games like MP3, SMG and SSBB (probably a lot for the last one). 

You hold him down, and I'll punch him.

Interesting news.