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Forums - Sales Discussion - Game: What month will the Wii not win combined WW monthly sales?

Sqrl on 20 July 2007

I should point out that its very likely the margin is MUCH larger then that aprox 5k number.

Since the Wii sells the vast majority of its consoles at the start of the week and the PS3 sells its throughout the week. So the Wii would probably have sold most of its "Ending March 4th" week consoles before march even started and the PS3 would have a pretty even distribution.

That said, this thread is still very interesting so long as we count the predictions as a "from now" prediction.
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Weisheit on 20 July 2007

This year, Worldwide, the Wii will not be outsold.

You people reaaly think Nintendo isnt holding back stock for X-mas?

 



Sqrl on 20 July 2007

I also just realized that all things considered this is probably still well within the margin for error, and could be considered to close to call.
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WiteoutKing on 20 July 2007

.5% margin is a mighty close shave for it to be decisive.



PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

Astrodust on 22 July 2007
milano said:
I think the opening post meant "when will the Wii be outsold, starting from now", which would not include the effects of the PS3's staggered launch.

Anyhow, Not This Generation is my guess.

Yes you would be correct.



 

 

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z64dan on 23 July 2007

December 2007, if Nintendo isn't hoarding these babies.



akuma587 on 23 July 2007

Hard to say, but I am going to guess September. I don't think MS will drop the price by then, or possibly even by this year, so it is somewhat iffy, but that is my prediction.

GTA4 will generate some console sales too, so October is another possibility, but I am sticking with September.



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ckmlb on 23 July 2007

If MS cuts the price of the 360 before Halo 3, then September.

If it doesn't cut the price this holiday season then the Wii continues to outsell both consoles WW for every month for the rest of the year.

So I'll predict February 08 as the month MGS 4 comes out and when PS3+360 sales WW beat Wii sales.

Edit: This is all ignoring the previous instance of this occuring and predicting the future instance of this repeating.



Thanks to Blacksaber for the sig!

Fractal of Time on 24 July 2007

March 2009
PS3 outsells 360 @ $400 (PAL PS3 has pricedrop delay)
Highly anticipated games for PS3 have finally released. (XIII & Killzone 2)

November 2009
Majoraty grabs Blu-ray
PS3 @ $300 in US

November 2010
PS3 @ $200 in US
Unless they have made some sort of motion games in combination with Playstation Eye. Like Wii sports and stuff.



Astrodust on 30 July 2007

Thanks clmlb for the prediction. I've put you down on the list with the new price cut for the 360. Also Fractal, were any of those dates a prediction for this thread? Only one prediction is allowed.