Time for a "Line in the Sand" - Hot Shots Golf (Japan)

kber81

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kber81 on 17 July 2007

omgwtfbbq said:
Excellent. I'll keep this quote in my bookmarks for the inevitable backflip. ("But no one claimed Hot Shots Golf 5 would revive the PS3. Wait for FFXIII")

Don't generalize. All statements about ultimate over for PS3 after some flop are as stupid as domination threads. Game will be successful. I believe bundle will be pretty successful too because of good price (cheaper than Gundam Pack). Also all people who believes PS3 will drop back on 8k level should think once again. We will see.

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WiteoutKing on 17 July 2007

100k first week
250k month
400k lifetime

PS3: 5.51m/51w, avg 108,039/w (up 239)
360: 12.93m/102w, avg 126,764/w (up 625), leads PS3 by 7.42m (up 70k), avg lead 18,725/w (up 386)
Wii: 13.52m/51w, avg 265,098/w (dn 1,102), leads PS3 by 8.01m (up 90k), avg lead 157,059/w (dn 1,341)

If 360 sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass 360 by...
01/08: (008w) +875.8%, 04/08: (021w) +344.4%, 07/08: (034w) +219.3%, 10/08: (047w) +163.5%
01/09: (060w) +131.8%, 04/09: (073w) +111.4%, 07/09: (085w) +098.1%, 10/09: (099w) +086.7%
If Wii sales stabilize, PS3 sales increases needed to pass Wii by...
01/08: (008w) +1072.%, 04/08: (021w) +498.4%, 07/08: (034w) +363.4%, 10/08: (047w) +303.1%
01/09: (060w) +269.0%, 04/09: (073w) +246.9%, 07/09: (085w) +232.6%, 10/09: (099w) +220.3%
If PS2 sales freeze, Wii sales increases needed to pass PS2 (as of Mar07, 108.4m) by...
2008: (008w) +4373.8%, 2009: (060w) +0496.5%, 2010: (112w) +0219.6%, 2011: (165w) +0116.9%
2012: (217w) +0064.9%, 2013: (269w) +0033.1%, 2014: (321w) +0011.5%, 2015: (376w) -0004.8%
At +0% it will pass it in 358w, the week ending September 19th, 2014, at an age of 409w (7y44w).
Current age of PS2: 7y37w.

Last update: Week ending November 3, 2007

mrstickball

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mrstickball on 17 July 2007

First week - 190,000 units
First month - 275,000 total units.
End sales; 500k LTD-ish.

The big question is, where will its legs be? If it can manage to have a decent drop on week 2 (which no PS3 title has really had yet), it could do real well.

Source, 230k>40k, a 82.5% drop? You sure about that? Thats pretty high. Not impossible (Trusty Bell or KH2FM-esque drop).

IMO, anything lower than 125k first week would be rather disappointing. GM did rather well, but thus far, hasn't had the greatest of legs.

Whats going to really matter is if HSG is casually frontloaded (decent o/d o/w multiplier, but bad o/w o/m multiplier), or does well, or neither. But in GM's defense, it's still selling 1k+ per week on the charts, at 1300 units last week. Not bad for such a frontloaded title. It could pull 2k+ units when HSG comes out.

Back from the dead, I'm afraid.

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Diomedes1976 on 17 July 2007

200K for first week

300 K first month ....

Shido

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Shido on 17 July 2007

163K first week

269K first month

~456K lifetime

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diegomoroco777 on 17 July 2007

Its gonna be funny to see MarioPart8 outseel HSG in its first month :)

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quigontcb on 17 July 2007

misterd, I can only speak for Hot Shots Golf 3, but maybe it's popular in Japan because it's so damn fun to play. A friend introduced me to the game a few years ago and I immediately went and bought my own copy. Hmmmm, a tough one to predict here... So there is going to be a Everybody's Golf console bundle? Will bundled copies be included in the individual sales numbers? I'll go ahead and make a guess anyways... First week: 175,000 First month: 275,000 I expect that the bundles may shoot the PS3's sales maybe as high as the 75,000 range the first week, probably no less than 35,000 at worst. It's so hard to predict things like this with the PS3's situation in Japan right now.

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