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Forums - Sales Discussion - Time for a "Line in the Sand" - Hot Shots Golf (Japan)

robjoh on 17 July 2007
kber81 said:

As some people here know I expect this title to change the tide in Japan. This title will sell at least 150k PS3 units and 500k game copies before end of the year. As for 1 week I expect - 70k PS3's and 225k HSG5 moved.

The best thing about this game will be steady sale on the 8k - 12k level for many weeks. (I hope so).

Week PS3 HSG5

1 70k 225k

2 45k 75k

3 35k 40k

4 25k 25k (365k - 4 weeks)

PS3 sale level stays around 25k.

Last time I was totally wrong (Folks Soul), so I'm pretty humble right now. Anyway someone has to be an optimist while Washimul is banned


 Well you have some humour at least but I do think you are overestimating PS3 sales.

My line:

First week 150k HSG5, a month 250k.

PS3 hardware mayby moves a 50k or something max during this period. 



 

 

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omgwtfbbq on 17 July 2007

well then after Hot Shots Golf comes out, if hardware sales dive straight away once again, can we finally have people giving up on the "After X, PS3 domination starts in Japan?"

Anyway, my numbers:

200k first week
300k first month

Anything less than this and publishers who have japanese aimed titles coming out on the PS3 will really start to worry.



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shams on 17 July 2007
kber81 said:

As some people here know I expect this title to change the tide in Japan. This title will sell at least 150k PS3 units and 500k game copies before end of the year. As for 1 week I expect - 70k PS3's and 225k HSG5 moved.

The best thing about this game will be steady sale on the 8k - 12k level for many weeks. (I hope so).

Week PS3 HSG5

1 70k 225k

2 45k 75k

3 35k 40k

4 25k 25k (365k - 4 weeks)

PS3 sale level stays around 25k.

Last time I was totally wrong (Folks Soul), so I'm pretty humble right now. Anyway someone has to be an optimist while Washimul is banned

All good being an optimist :) I'm sure some titles will send PS3 sales through the roof - but I don't think this is one of them.

I'll be pretty surprised if PS3 hardware gets past 23k on week#1, and 13-14k on week#2.

 



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ckmlb on 17 July 2007
omgwtfbbq said:
well then after Hot Shots Golf comes out, if hardware sales dive straight away once again, can we finally have people giving up on the "After X, PS3 domination starts in Japan?"

Anyway, my numbers:

200k first week
300k first month

Anything less than this and publishers who have japanese aimed titles coming out on the PS3 will really start to worry.

 Yes it will be the end of the PS3 as we know it.



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VonShigsy on 17 July 2007

first week 110.000

Ps3 moved 45.000

second week 60.000

Ps3 25.000

Third week 25.000

Ps3 13.000

Fourth week 12.000

Ps3 10.000 

 

 



"You won't find Adobe here in Nairobi"


 

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StarcraftManiac on 17 July 2007

If THIS game fails to meet sales expectations... It's doom for PS3 in Japan... Especially if we see DQSwords reach 750k and Mario party 8 having a 'nearly as big/bigger' opening week then hot shots golf 5.

Well... My  predictions:

1st week: 230k - PS3 52k.

2nd week: 78k - PS3 31k.

3th week: 46k - PS3 24k.

4t week: 21k - PS3 21k.

5th week: 14k - PS3 16k.

6th week: 8k - PS3 ~12k.

 

First week: ~230k.

First month (~4 weeks): ~375k...

Total sales till PS3 settles around 12k again: ~400k.

 

Note: This is an optimistic guess... Since PS3 only has a Userbase of ~1 mil... Is is fairly hard to get an attachratio of 40%... Even though the games predecessors seem to be big. So if it settles above 340k... the dev can be fairly happy... And if it goes below that number... Or even below the 300k... It is doom for PS3 in Japan... (Gamecube doom...)



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kber81 on 17 July 2007
StarcraftManiac said:

If THIS game fails to meet sales expectations... It's doom for PS3 in Japan... Especially if we see DQSwords reach 750k and Mario party 8 having a 'nearly as big/bigger' opening week then hot shots golf 5.


 DQ won't reach 750k. It already drop on amazon.jp (yeah I do know what are you going to say about amazon...)



StarcraftManiac on 17 July 2007
kber81 said:
StarcraftManiac said:

If THIS game fails to meet sales expectations... It's doom for PS3 in Japan... Especially if we see DQSwords reach 750k and Mario party 8 having a 'nearly as big/bigger' opening week then hot shots golf 5.


 DQ won't reach 750k. It already drop on amazon.jp (yeah I do know what are you going to say about amazon...)


Lets just wait and see how it fairs this week and how big of a drop-off it has in the coming weeks alright?!'

And btw: Amazon... Is, well... Just Amazon... Even PS3 was #1 on Amazon... Just to give you an idea of how 'not representative' Amazon is for the Jap/American market.



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omgwtfbbq on 17 July 2007
ckmlb said:
omgwtfbbq said:
well then after Hot Shots Golf comes out, if hardware sales dive straight away once again, can we finally have people giving up on the "After X, PS3 domination starts in Japan?"

Anyway, my numbers:

200k first week
300k first month

Anything less than this and publishers who have japanese aimed titles coming out on the PS3 will really start to worry.

Yes it will be the end of the PS3 as we know it.

Excellent. I'll keep this quote in my bookmarks for the inevitable backflip. ("But no one claimed Hot Shots Golf 5 would revive the PS3. Wait for FFXIII")

 



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kber81 on 17 July 2007
StarcraftManiac said:

Lets just wait and see how it fairs this week and how big of a drop-off it has in the coming weeks alright?!'

And btw: Amazon... Is, well... Just Amazon... Even PS3 was #1 on Amazon... Just to give you an idea of how 'not representative' Amazon is for the Jap/American market.


 Agree but big games last even on amazon... MHF2 was first for few weeks after release.