150k first week (releases on a thursday ...)
250k first month

Check out this chart, showing the PS3s top 2 titles so far in Japan:

I think Hot Shots Golf 5 will be somewhere between the two, but closer to Gundam.

how much did gundam ship?

I think around 350k

100k 1st week
240k 1st month

ouch, retailers got hurt pretty bad if there is still 70k gundams out there.

I meant gamer preorders - not what retailers ordered.  I don't think I made that clear.

Side discussion - WHY is this so big in Japan? Can anyone explain it to me (or do I just shrug my shoulders and say "Japanese... go figure" like I do with dating sims).

Just to note, my figures are NOT what I predict the game will do (it should do higher). They represent my "line in the sand" - figures lower than this will represent a really poor showing for the PS3, and higher is a good showing.

I suspect the actual figures will be 25%-30% higher than my predicted figures - closer to 160-180k for the first week.

If TheSource actually has some figures/information for this game (not just extrapolated figures), I'll tend to believe him more :)

Yeah, understanding Japanese gaming tastes involves lots of shrugging. Haha.

As some people here know I expect this title to change the tide in Japan. This title will sell at least 150k PS3 units and 500k game copies before end of the year. As for 1 week I expect - 70k PS3's and 225k HSG5 moved.

The best thing about this game will be steady sale on the 8k - 12k level for many weeks. (I hope so).

Week    PS3    HSG5

   1        70k    225k 

   2        45k     75k 

   3        35k     40k 

   4        25k     25k        (365k - 4 weeks)

   PS3 sale level stays around 25k. 

Last time I was totally wrong (Folks Soul), so I'm pretty humble right now. Anyway someone has to be an optimist while Washimul is banned