Nintendo sold the most gaming hardware - Wii+GC+DS+GBA > PS2+PS3+PSP or Xbox 360

Sony sold the most home consoles - PS2+PS3 > Wii or Xbox 360

Microsoft sold the most next gen consoles - Xbox 360 > Wii or PS3

All claimed victory last year, and all are probably spinning the numbers one way or the other this year as well. 

I definitely wouldn't say Sony 'won' last holiday season.  It seemed to me like Microsoft won due to their huge 360 sales, although Nintendo would have won if they could have met demand.  So far, the holiday season hasn't ended for Nintendo.

Also, Wii+DS > PS2+PS3+PSP, I think.

If anyone but Nintendo "wins" this holiday season, the win will have to be defined with the DS factored out of the competition and the Wii will have to have had supply problems.  We expect supply problems, of course, but not to the extent of last Christmas.

Whether or not Sony will beat MS is anyone's guess, because we don't know which moves Sony and MS will make before the holidays.  If Sony goes into the holidays with a $499 80GB PS3 w/ game and MS goes in with a $299 360 premium w/ game or rebate, MS will probably sell far more units.

Also, the PS2 is not successful in Japan at this point.  We'd have to talk about the American market only because it's unlikely that the PS2+PSP+PS3 combined will outsell the Wii during the holidays in Japan unless Nintendo really fumbles supply. 

Well, its a tough question "Will the ps3 win this holiday season" The best games this holiday season are going to be released on the ps3, the recent price drop has tripled sales through the internet.But the wii is not selling well any where since its out sold. If nintendo Realeses a huge amount of units, nintendo will win this holiday season no doubt, but if they dont then my bet will go out to sony.

If you don't include Super Smas Bros. Brawl, Super Mario Galaxy, and Halo 3 ...

The mass bulk of the PS3's best games are multiplatform and the PS3 certainly does not have the well known established exclusive titles that the Wii or XBox 360 has

For how long?

The PS3 will not stay at this pace for very long and then it will return to a lower level ... the increase in the level it returns to as compared to its initial sales will demonstrate the true gains from the price drop

Well unless you havent seen e3, you very well know sony has the best line up this holiday season. Though I agree with you on the sales perspective, the sales will easily increase through the holiday season, while consumers are given a choice between a 60gb with no game or an 80gb model with a game.

Nintendo will sell their entire stock this holday. I expect Sony and Microsoft to do well too but they won't sell their entire stock. That would be huge news if they did though.

It's the same reason I don't buy combo VHS/DVD players or receivers with DVD players in them, or TVs with an integrated VHS/DVD. It might save me money on the initial purchase, but it also means there's more stuff to break down. My PS2 isn't for movies. My DVD player that also happens to play divx encodes is for that. My boyfriend purchased a receiver with a DVD player and the DVD player stopped working 2 weeks after the warranty ran out (it was only a 3 month warranty).

Most of Playstation 3's E3 stuff will be out next year, let alone who knows what will be good and what will suck. You can't just say "WELL X GAMES ARE COMING OUT, they will dominate" on Playstation 3. Most of the games are unknown properties to the average game buyer, and who knows what will blow chunks anyway. You *know* games like Halo 3, GTAIV, Mario and Smash will sell mad tons, but that's about it.

I think MS has a much more interesting slate this season anyway. MS will make a killing on software. And all Wii needs are the Big Three.

 And you can just as easily make a case that "All eyes will be on Nintendo to see if low-res gimmick Wii has STAYING POWER!!!!!" or "All eyes will be on Microsoft to see if it can withstand actual games on Playstation 3!!!!!!" Garbage.

Ghaleon excellent post. One of the biggest Sony PS3 games, MGS4, was pushed back to 2008 at E3. Without it, the the majority of PS3 exclusive titles that are still coming in 2007 are new IPs and virtual unknowns. There is chance that one of them could be a breakout hit, but the PS3's low userbase and higher pricing greatly diminishes the chance for one of its new IPs to be a system seller.