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Forums - Sales - Top Ten Console Sales - Exclusives vs. Multi-Platform

Dun wry about SONY exclusives. SONY fanboys said MGS4 would be the best selling game this year, LBP will sell 6mill, R2 will sell 5mill, GT5 will sell 8-10mill and FFX3 will sell 7-8mill



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@spidey_77

except GT 5 WILL sell 8 - 10 million

especially as its demo has managed to sell 2 Million......3 million incl downloads



All hail the KING, Andrespetmonkey

ZenfoldorVGI said:

Some people think LBP will take the market by storm. You don't think it'll earn a spot on that list? The front page predicts that LBP will sell more than Gears 2. Gears 2 will certainly sell more than Gears 1, and Gears 1 is on that list. Therefore by reference, a vast number of people voting think LBP will sell more than Gears 1 or 2.

Given this information, do you think that LBP will make the list, or do you think that fandom and hope might have mislead a lot of peoples votes?

Of course it's possible for Little Big Planet to make the list, but I would rate the chances as very low. Maybe 20% in a best-case scenario. Keep in mind these are moving targets - the "top ten" will continue to go up as more games are released and older games continue to sell. Even looking just at the exclusives list, a game is going to have to sell about 5 million copies to vault the current titles. Seeing as how *ZERO* games on the PS3 have sold 5m at time of writing, that's a huge stretch for a new game about which little is known.

The only way Little Big Planet makes the list is if Sony pulls a Wii Sports and bundles it with every new console. Which could actually happen.

I'm not certain that Gears 2 will necessarily outsell the original Gears of War either. The first game benefitted from being the first "big" game on the 360, and the first major shooter on an HD console. Gears 2 will have a lot of hype, but there's also vastly more competition from other shooters on the market now compared to 2006. Don't get me wrong, Gears 2 absolutely could, and probably will, outsell its predecessor - but it's no given.



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End of 2008 totals: Wii 42m, 360 24m, PS3 18.5m (made Jan. 4, 2008)

superchunk said:
BrainBoxLtd said:
Sullla said:

Anyway, I don't really have an argument here, just wanted to share some interesting data. Enjoy.

 

I wouldn't worry about that. There's probably plenty of generous people who'd be more then willing to bring an argument into your thread.

 

Yeah, its only a matter of time before the first "Wii Sports/Play don't count [waaaaaaaaa, waaaaaaaaa]" crap.

 

I can understand people saying that for Wii Sports, but why would they say that for Wii Play?  You have to buy that one separately over here, so it's a deliberate purchase, no?



TWRoO said:

While I can see with your last 2 paragraphs you don't think LBP has a chance.... I shall respond to the first 2 paragraphs.

Do you remember the semi-famous, 12,000+ votes long running poll about best selling game in 2008? (the one that resulted in the position of poll administrator being made because it wasn't updated in months)
Yeah the eventual game with the most votes was Metal Gear Solid 4.... the only one of the list that didn't have a chance in hell. Mario Kart was stone dead last, and yet looks like it might become the best seller (if Wii Fit doesn't have the supply)

So yes fandom and hope is certainly misleading a lot of people votes here too... the most sensible voters will be voting for Wii Music, Animal Crossing and Gears 2.... all of which should at the minimum pass 6 million. Fable 2 won't get near 6 million, Resistance 2 might get near it, but I doubt it will pass it. LBP is an unknown, I'd give a minimum of 2 million, but it could pass 6 million handily too.

 

 

Just to comment, I highly doubt Animal Crossing, LBP, or R2 will get anywhere near 6 million units sold. I think they'll fall in around 4 million more or less. You've got to remember, none of these games are as popular as MGS4 is and the PS3 has the lowest userbase of any console. Particularly because of Japan, where many games have gotten big pushes this gen to end up in the 6 million range, like Kart and 4 million range to MGS4.

Wii Music is a wild card. I have no idea what the hell it's gonna do. I'm fairly sure Animal Crossing won't near Kart or Brawl though.

LBP is also a bit of a wild card, like I said, I don't think it'll outsell MGS4, but it it does, that proves the power of a bridge title.

So yeah, I'd bet the bank on it. Gears 2 by a mile. Wii Music has a chance, but it's a complete wildcard. Even with LBP's wildcard status, I still dunno if it has much of a chance ot sell 6 million units on a smaller userbase that is not uniformly excited for the game. Xbox 360 owner....they're freakin' nuts about Gears. Maybe Halo level potential for this game.



I don't need your console war.
It feeds the rich while it buries the poor.
You're power hungry, spinnin' stories, and bein' graphics whores.
I don't need your console war.

NO NO, NO NO NO.

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darthdevidem01 said:
@spidey_77

except GT 5 WILL sell 8 - 10 million

especially as its demo has managed to sell 2 Million......3 million incl downloads

They released sales including downloads?  Cause that's like 30% higher sales for downloads then sony expected vs retail.  I believe Sony expected 1 digital copy sold for every 5 retail.



ZenfoldorVGI said:

Just to comment, I highly doubt Animal Crossing, LBP, or R2 will get anywhere near 6 million units sold. I think they'll fall in around 4 million more or less.

Was that a mistake?

Animal Crossing on the Gamecube (A new IP outside of Japan) managed just short of 4 million.... and in Japan it was the 2nd best selling GC game just short of 1 million (1 in 4 GC owners)
Perhaps it won't get the huge sales of the DS version, which will likely exceed 10 million this Christmas, but I am pretty sure it will far exceed the GC version.

 



Kasz216 said:
darthdevidem01 said:
@spidey_77

except GT 5 WILL sell 8 - 10 million

especially as its demo has managed to sell 2 Million......3 million incl downloads

They released sales including downloads?  Cause that's like 30% higher sales for downloads then sony expected vs retail.  I believe Sony expected 1 digital copy sold for every 5 retail.

I can't remember the figure, but Sony released a total sales number including downloads... and it was about 300k higher than VGC figure for the retail game, so either downloads are quite low, or VGC is overtracking the retail version.

 



darthdevidem01 said:
Sullla said:
Thanks for the catch on Mario Kart Wii, I edited it into the original post.

ZenfoldorVGI, perhaps we'll see PS3 games appearing here with more frequency as time goes on. All I can do is report the current numbers. I don't think any PS3 exclusive other than Gran Turismo has a realistic shot of making the top ten list though.

I agree....if you look at the list really Gran Turismo & Final Fantasy are the only BIG franchises that haven't been released this gen that have a chance of making the top bracket.....obviously with FF13 being multiplat loads of PS3 sales go

so GT5 will definetely be on there.....

 


Tekken is a big franchise aswell that hasn't been released (I'm not including T5DR) Tekken 5 on PS2 did 4Million +

Not impressed with PS3 software. Plenty of million sellers, just none of them have gone onto super sales. But they are still selling so.....



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