Top Ten Console Sales - Exclusives vs. Multi-Platform

[Sullla]

ZenfoldorVGI said:

Some people think LBP will take the market by storm. You don't think it'll earn a spot on that list? The front page predicts that LBP will sell more than Gears 2. Gears 2 will certainly sell more than Gears 1, and Gears 1 is on that list. Therefore by reference, a vast number of people voting think LBP will sell more than Gears 1 or 2.

Given this information, do you think that LBP will make the list, or do you think that fandom and hope might have mislead a lot of peoples votes?

Of course it's possible for Little Big Planet to make the list, but I would rate the chances as very low. Maybe 20% in a best-case scenario. Keep in mind these are moving targets - the "top ten" will continue to go up as more games are released and older games continue to sell. Even looking just at the exclusives list, a game is going to have to sell about 5 million copies to vault the current titles. Seeing as how *ZERO* games on the PS3 have sold 5m at time of writing, that's a huge stretch for a new game about which little is known.

The only way Little Big Planet makes the list is if Sony pulls a Wii Sports and bundles it with every new console. Which could actually happen.

I'm not certain that Gears 2 will necessarily outsell the original Gears of War either. The first game benefitted from being the first "big" game on the 360, and the first major shooter on an HD console. Gears 2 will have a lot of hype, but there's also vastly more competition from other shooters on the market now compared to 2006. Don't get me wrong, Gears 2 absolutely could, and probably will, outsell its predecessor - but it's no given.