What I expect to happen, what I expect Microsft expects to happen, and what I want to happen are all different. Microsft expects to win, I expect them to get 30-45%, and I want them to get 33%, with Sony getting 33% and Nintendo getting 34%, with Nintendo getting 60% of the handheld market (sony 40%) and Nintendo making the most profit, but Sony and Microsft making enough to stay in the gaming business. Oligopoly>Monoploy.

yeah let's make crappy games, sell them to little girls and because of the low budget we'll get a huge profit and make more crappy games. Renaissance FTW /sarcasm

(Note: I'm not talking about the main Nintendo franchises but most of the 3rd party games)

45% would be may max prediction. But lets say it comes to pass, and yet Micorsft still "obviously" loses... that would mean that Nintendo or Sony got 46-55% of the market, which leaves 0-9% left for the last player. 10% of less market share drives a hardware gaming company out of the business. 45% is almost gauranteed to be a win.

@ultimate_123

I think your fear is unfounded. First Microsoft is betting on core and hardcore gamers. That is what they pay online service is all about. That is where they are aiming to make the most profit in the long run. Second the casual market is a rather tight market. Some games do exceedingly well the majority of them fall on deaf ears. Third Microsoft already has a casual setting on their present console they call it the Arcade.

Where were these people claiming Nintendo games were casual in the previous two generations. Can it not be conceded that Mario Party, Mario Kart, and Smash Bros did not already exist before this current generation. Yes they may be a little softer now due to waggle, but they were basically there all along. What I find ironic is that Nintendo has not gone deeper into their chest of casual fair. They still have Pilotwings, Waverace, and Starfox to get around to this generation. All highly casual games.

I suppose you can say Endless Ocean is this generations Pilotwings, and you could say excite truck is this generations Waverace. However for me that just does not seem to fit.

Don't worry about the casual crap, gears of war 2 will balance things out...

What kind of a response it that? If they get 45% next gen, that leaves 55% to be split amongst the currently two other competitors. Either one gets only 4 % or, only one other company remains.

All we did was follow up on your suggested scenario.

Correction: bad for people like you. I like the direction which gaming is taking, and I will have a massive permanent grin on my face if the above ever happens.

Or there could be staggard console releases... but some people are too concerned about 100/3 than looking at future possibilities... who was I to challenge the one track minds

There are only 2 things that have come out from Microsoft which were good in the gaming realm. Rise of Nations and Age of Empires, and they recently fired the makers of the second. Fact is, I doubt that even if they go casual they will be able to steal Nintendo's thunder. the Xbox720 won't all of the sudden be better than whatever Nintendo churns out next just because many of these new gamers are already loyal and familiar with Nintendo. If they don't become hardcore no matter what M$ does won't it won't be able to change their oppinions. Especially if it costs more than Nintendo again.

You're filling in information later, therfore, earlier on the "One tracked mind people" have minimal to respond to. Less specifics equals out to more people interpreting it as they see fit.