If the drop the price of the PS3 to $250, the I think 11M is still possible by end of Sony's fiscal year (2008/03/31)

If they give away the PS3 for free, it's almost a certainty that they will sell 11 million.

If you folks are right (as it seems you may well be) then I don't know that they really have much of a chance at meeting this goal. I like to be optimistic about this kind of stuff usually but the numbers just don't add up for me. Maybe one of you folks who think they can meet the 11 Million shipped this fiscal year can draw up some numbers for us? I'd be very interested to see what you folks have in mind and see if I am maybe missing some aspect of this.

There are some big games coming out from now until then and it could happen. Will I hold my breath till then? No, thats 8 months away. It's possible, but time will tell, especially this holiday season.

Consider that at the 5.5 million number they have (or had) about 2 million in the retail channel and warehouses. They cannot reproduce that unless they decide to pile a lot more in warehouses and they cannot reproduce the numbers they saw at their launch in each region, where their sales were very significant in Europe. In the interest of finding the most accurate possible numbers, consider this:

- Sony sold 3.3 and had 5.5 million shipped as of March 31. The 2.2 million other units were in stores and warehouses, but that number should not grow but should be maintained.

- Factoring out the 2.2 million that Sony will try to keep in stores and warehouses, they need to sell 8.8 million total to consumers.

- This means they need to sell about 5 million more units in 9 months and Sony isn't even close to 500K units/month world wide.

- Christmas will likely be much less generous to Sony this year than it was to Microsoft last year. Microsoft had more games out, was the only console in stock, and had a $100 rebate in many areas leaving their flagship product only $299.

It is possible they'll reach 11 million units shipped (er, sold ;) by March 31, 2008, but unless it outperforms Microsoft's 2006 Holiday season this year, that's pretty unlikely.

[Edit] Holy balls.   They believe they'll have 16.5 million units shipped total as of March 31, 2008?  Are they insane?  It would have to be outperforming the Xbox 360 significantly for a long period to accomplish that!  For reference, Microsoft shipped about 11 million total in the same timeframe and that was with channel stuffing.

On the same rails with TheBigFatJ --> most likely max 11 million units shipped/sold at the end off FY.

I thought "It's bad, but he's been around a while, so I'll be lenient. It was probably unintentional anyways" but no, the guy re-edits his post to stay racist. Short of getting an invitation in the mail, I can't think of a more clear way to ask to be banned.

Jap?????? That's a racial slur you know...

Enjoy your ban you racist bastard.

That's just not going to happen. It's July and not even 4 million have been sold. Shipped is a possibility, but even then...