The average sales of the first three MGS titles was 5 million, not including spin-offs and Xbox versions.
MGS4 is tracking to come in to around 4 million lifetime according to VGChartz, unless it sees ungodly sales during the holiday period, or bundling (of which it has already had a great deal). Given this title had an enormous budget compared to previous titles (even when taking account of the progression to the next generation), did MGS4 fail to meet its sales expectations?
Note: Due to Sony moneyhatting, and solid sales of the game, I am positive Konami made a reasonable amount of profit on the game.
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