Texas and Missouri went from strong McCain to weak McCain.
Ohio and Florida went from a tie to weak Obama.
Nevada went from slight McCain to slight Obama.
Minnesota and Iowa are now strong Obama.
Major changes on the chart today. The debate tonight may affect it even further...but I don't think that McCain will drop down. I think this will be the lowest he goes. Obama can pick up North Carolina...so he isn't necesarily at his peak, but he won't go much higher. It's interesting to see the map, which looked very red in the previous weeks....turn so blue and pink in the last few days.
Ouch, McCain needs something really big to happen to get back in this race and take attention off the economy. He needs some country to nuke another country, or something almost on that level:
Obama: 338 (+52)
McCain: 185 (-5)
Tie: 15 (-47)
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
I'm still not a very big fan of electoral-vote.com because they assign electoral college votes for states even though the difference between the candidates is (much) smaller than the margin of error on the polls they use, and much smaller than the number of undecided voters. I prefer pollster.com which currently has McCain at 163 while Obama is at 250 with 125 electoral votes undecided.
At the moment, I would expect Obama to win if there was an election today ... Since McCain only really needs a 1% to 2% swing in only a handful of states to win this election I think this can still be called a very close race.
An interesting thing to watch will be if the $700 Billion bailout effectively calms the market will this benefit McCain or Obama more, and will the $700 Billion bailout itself hurt McCain or Obama more. There are reasons why it could go either way ...
I'm still not a very big fan of electoral-vote.com because they assign electoral college votes for states even though the difference between the candidates is (much) smaller than the margin of error on the polls they use, and much smaller than the number of undecided voters. I prefer pollster.com which currently has McCain at 163 while Obama is at 250 with 125 electoral votes undecided.
At the moment, I would expect Obama to win if there was an election today ... Since McCain only really needs a 1% to 2% swing in only a handful of states to win this election I think this can still be called a very close race.
An interesting thing to watch will be if the $700 Billion bailout effectively calms the market will this benefit McCain or Obama more, and will the $700 Billion bailout itself hurt McCain or Obama more. There are reasons why it could go either way ...
I think people like electoral-vote.com because it has a bigger map that's easier to understand. I added pollster.com to the OP. It looks nice. I'll have to check it out more closely.
The $700BB hasn't passed yet. I expect it will and then the people in the House races will have to explain why they voted for it. The best the market can do now is stay in a range. It will probably go down and find it's new stable level. I'll just guess around 9500. If the market is below 10k on Nov. 4th I expect Obama to win. If it's above then it might be a real contest. Any economic news coming out at the end of this month is probably going to have effect.
Right now the EC map is looking crazy strong for Obama. It's looking more like Mondale vs. Reagan, McGovern vs. Nixon or Dole vs. Clinton. But all of those races were against popular incumbents. Basically the challengers were just sent out to die, and to help in the Senate and House races. I've never followed a race by the EC map before until it was the last week of the campaign so this is very interesting.
It usually starts to tighten up some during the last three days (Nov. 1-3).
I'm still waiting for the insane attack ads from the 527's. Some Willie Horton or Swiftboat type stuff. It will happen or something has changed in American politics that I missed.
Anyways, I believe Obama needs at least a 10% lead in the polls to have any hope at all of winning. When it comes time to pull the lever I believe that racism will play a part in which candidate is selected. Maybe I'm too cynical or I don't understand how America has changed. I'll be glad to be proved wrong.
I'm still not a very big fan of electoral-vote.com because they assign electoral college votes for states even though the difference between the candidates is (much) smaller than the margin of error on the polls they use, and much smaller than the number of undecided voters. I prefer pollster.com which currently has McCain at 163 while Obama is at 250 with 125 electoral votes undecided.
At the moment, I would expect Obama to win if there was an election today ... Since McCain only really needs a 1% to 2% swing in only a handful of states to win this election I think this can still be called a very close race.
An interesting thing to watch will be if the $700 Billion bailout effectively calms the market will this benefit McCain or Obama more, and will the $700 Billion bailout itself hurt McCain or Obama more. There are reasons why it could go either way ...
I think people like electoral-vote.com because it has a bigger map that's easier to understand. I added pollster.com to the OP. It looks nice. I'll have to check it out more closely.
The $700BB hasn't passed yet. I expect it will and then the people in the House races will have to explain why they voted for it. The best the market can do now is stay in a range. It will probably go down and find it's new stable level. I'll just guess around 9500. If the market is below 10k on Nov. 4th I expect Obama to win. If it's above then it might be a real contest. Any economic news coming out at the end of this month is probably going to have effect.
Right now the EC map is looking crazy strong for Obama. It's looking more like Mondale vs. Reagan, McGovern vs. Nixon or Dole vs. Clinton. But all of those races were against popular incumbents. Basically the challengers were just sent out to die, and to help in the Senate and House races. I've never followed a race by the EC map before until it was the last week of the campaign so this is very interesting.
It usually starts to tighten up some during the last three days (Nov. 1-3).
I'm still waiting for the insane attack ads from the 527's. Some Willie Horton or Swiftboat type stuff. It will happen or something has changed in American politics that I missed.
Anyways, I believe Obama needs at least a 10% lead in the polls to have any hope at all of winning. When it comes time to pull the lever I believe that racism will play a part in which candidate is selected. Maybe I'm too cynical or I don't understand how America has changed. I'll be glad to be proved wrong.
It's called the Bradley Effect - or the newer version, the Harold Ford effect. It's painfully real, even among diehard supporters.
The term Bradley effect, less commonly called[1] the Wilder effect, refers to a frequently observed discrepancy between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in Americanpolitical campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white[2][3][4] Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to a tendency on the part of voters -- black as well as white -- to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a Black candidate, when, on election day, they vote for his/her white opponent.[5] candidate run against each other.
It happened with Harold Ford in 2006. A young and upcoming Dem in Tenn., his dad made history and he was soaring in the polls. However, near the end of the campaign, an ad that sunk him.
Folks will look for any excuse besides race. And yes, you are correct, Fksumot. He needs a huge spread to beat McCain so he can suffer that kind of loss.
What's really sad is - the GOP will do whatever it takes for voter suppression, caging and the like to win.
The above ad proves my point.
Associate - white woman/black man and folks will go the other way.
True story - a staffer was all about Obama and said he'd vote for him. When he went into the primary booth, he nearly voted for John Edwards, who at the time was out of the race. He said 'I couldn't vote for Obama - I know what I get with Edwards,' but then he snapped back and voted for Obama. He's a rare case - most folks would have voted for a candidate not even running.
I think the younger generation is a lot more comfortable with voting for a black man than the Baby Boomers and beyond.
I'm still not a very big fan of electoral-vote.com because they assign electoral college votes for states even though the difference between the candidates is (much) smaller than the margin of error on the polls they use, and much smaller than the number of undecided voters. I prefer pollster.com which currently has McCain at 163 while Obama is at 250 with 125 electoral votes undecided.
At the moment, I would expect Obama to win if there was an election today ... Since McCain only really needs a 1% to 2% swing in only a handful of states to win this election I think this can still be called a very close race.
An interesting thing to watch will be if the $700 Billion bailout effectively calms the market will this benefit McCain or Obama more, and will the $700 Billion bailout itself hurt McCain or Obama more. There are reasons why it could go either way ...
I agree with you that electoral-vote.com jumps around too easily one way or the other, but every other site I have looked at shows the exact same thing, if not worse. That is what has led me to believe that McCain's problems are running pretty deep. Here are the RCP numbers:
Battleground States (notice, Obama is the only one with states leaning his way, while any states leaning McCain have eroded into toss-ups. Click the link for detailed polling averages on each state:
We had two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a salt shaker half full of cocaine, a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers…Also a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether and two dozen amyls. The only thing that really worried me was the ether. There is nothing in the world more helpless and irresponsible and depraved than a man in the depths of an ether binge. –Raoul Duke
It is hard to shed anything but crocodile tears over White House speechwriter Patrick Buchanan's tragic analysis of the Nixon debacle. "It's like Sisyphus," he said. "We rolled the rock all the way up the mountain...and it rolled right back down on us...." Neither Sisyphus nor the commander of the Light Brigade nor Pat Buchanan had the time or any real inclination to question what they were doing...a martyr, to the bitter end, to a "flawed" cause and a narrow, atavistic concept of conservative politics that has done more damage to itself and the country in less than six years than its liberal enemies could have done in two or three decades. -Hunter S. Thompson
Toss Up
Leaning
